TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13091493
Played Sep 8Finished
Jakub Kaczmarek
Home
2.70
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1513911411411––
Rafal Skotniczny
Away
1.37
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:07 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
1513911411411––
H2H Jakub Kaczmarek 7–11 Rafal Skotniczny Jakub Kaczmarek has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:07What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.37 (66%)
Skotniczny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-11 in 18
Skotniczny
Correct
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaczmarek 1259 vs Skotniczny 1459
Skotniczny
Correct
both rated, 200 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczmarek 0% vs Skotniczny 80%
Skotniczny
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczmarek 20% vs Skotniczny 80%
Skotniczny
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczmarek -5 · Skotniczny +2
Kaczmarek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaczmarek form (0%) is below what odds imply (37%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczmarek 2.70 / Skotniczny 1.37
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Skotniczny)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13091493
Kaczmarek2.70
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 165 of 504
Down 0–1, comes back18% 58 of 325
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 181
Skotniczny1.37
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 214 of 337
Up 2–0, closes it96% 114 of 119
Up 1–0, closes it83% 164 of 198
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaczmarek2wins
AwaySkotniczny8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSkotniczny leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaczmarek40%2 of 5
AwaySkotniczny100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaczmarek5Skotniczny5n = 10split evenly
S2Kaczmarek3Skotniczny7n = 10Skotniczny took 7 of 10
S3Kaczmarek3Skotniczny7n = 10Skotniczny took 7 of 10
S4Kaczmarek2Skotniczny4n = 6Skotniczny took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaczmarekSkotnicznyK − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.439.1−6.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczmarekSkotnicznyBasisWin rate · lifetime471 / 1299 vs 584 / 100936.3%57.9%471 / 1299 vs 584 / 1009Avg sets wonper match1.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznyKaczmarek 2.70/Skotniczny 1.37
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.9%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek—159441R. Skotniczny—131111113
LJun 15 · 06:20J. Kaczmarek—9610R. Skotniczny—1111113
WMay 6 · 15:05J. Kaczmarek—1311123R. Skotniczny—117100
LMay 6 · 09:05J. Kaczmarek—61191192R. Skotniczny—116118113
LFeb 11 · 12:30J. Kaczmarek—9750R. Skotniczny—1111113
LFeb 11 · 08:10J. Kaczmarek—1148101R. Skotniczny—91111123
LAug 21 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek—7760R. Skotniczny—1111113
LAug 21 · 09:55J. Kaczmarek—5141461R. Skotniczny—111612113
WMay 15 · 10:20J. Kaczmarek—11811113R. Skotniczny—611581
LApr 1 · 10:40J. Kaczmarek—11115762R. Skotniczny—781111113
J. Kaczmarek10
LSep 8 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek1.86511761A. Ruszkiewicz1.8011711113LSep 8 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek3.20116821K. Hetnar1.2791111113LSep 8 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek2.18811961M. Adamus1.5611611113LSep 7 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek2.2011181241P. Przewlocki1.6182014113LSep 7 · 13:05J. Kaczmarek2.00116681M. Adamus1.7371111113LSep 7 · 11:50J. Kaczmarek4.008550K. Hetnar1.221111113WSep 7 · 10:10J. Kaczmarek2.101110911113W. Urban1.6761211772LSep 7 · 09:00J. Kaczmarek1.806111051R. Niemiec1.9111412113WSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113LSep 4 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek3.901181281S. Szostok1.2291114113
R. Skotniczny10
WSep 8 · 08:00K. Hetnar1.804770R. Skotniczny1.911111113WSep 8 · 06:25R. Skotniczny1.1981111113M. Cesarz3.80116541WSep 8 · 04:50R. Skotniczny1.57111111113M. Adamus2.16913461LSep 8 · 04:00A. Ruszkiewicz2.451111123R. Skotniczny1.4737100WSep 7 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.4581211113W. Tobiasz2.551110731WSep 7 · 15:05Y. Fomin2.401110911102R. Skotniczny1.50612116123WSep 7 · 14:20P. Mecik3.30711581R. Skotniczny1.2711811113LSep 7 · 13:30R. Skotniczny1.716690S. Szostok2.001111113WSep 7 · 12:20R. Skotniczny1.601111113G. Wichowski2.102860WSep 7 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.25411911113W. Tobiasz3.5011711532
Upcoming Matches
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R. Skotniczny
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