TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13091495
Played Sep 8Finished
Jakub Kaczmarek
Home
3.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119611811211––
Krzysztof Hetnar
Away
1.27
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:07 and never touched — 64.7% is still 64.7%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Hetnar to win
64.7%
64.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
119611811211––
H2H Jakub Kaczmarek 4–60 Krzysztof Hetnar Jakub Kaczmarek has won 4 of their 64 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 17h before this match
Hetnar beat Kaczmarek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:07What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.27 (72%)
Hetnar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-60 in 64
Hetnar
Correct
gap of 56 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaczmarek 1282 vs Hetnar 1459
Hetnar
Correct
both rated, 178 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczmarek 20% vs Hetnar 100%
Hetnar
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczmarek 30% vs Hetnar 50%
Hetnar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczmarek -4 · Hetnar +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Hetnar) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hetnar form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (79%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczmarek 3.20 / Hetnar 1.27
Signal prob.22% / 78%
Edge (Hetnar)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13091495
Kaczmarek3.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 165 of 504
Down 0–1, comes back18% 58 of 325
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 181
Hetnar1.27
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 266 of 390
Up 2–0, closes it98% 148 of 151
Up 1–0, closes it86% 218 of 255
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaczmarek1wins
AwayHetnar9wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHetnar leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaczmarekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHetnar100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaczmarek2Hetnar8n = 10Hetnar took 8 of 10
S2Kaczmarek3Hetnar7n = 10Hetnar took 7 of 10
S3Kaczmarek6Hetnar4n = 10Kaczmarek took 6 of 10
S4Kaczmarek2Hetnar4n = 6Hetnar took 4 of 6
S5Kaczmarek0Hetnar5n = 5Hetnar took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaczmarekHetnarK − HBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.942.8−8.9per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczmarekHetnarBasisWin rate · lifetime471 / 1296 vs 724 / 117636.3%61.6%471 / 1296 vs 724 / 1176Avg sets wonper match1.62.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HetnarKaczmarek 3.20/Hetnar 1.27
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.9%
Hetnar · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hetnar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 18:45J. Kaczmarek—11711113K. Hetnar—811961
LAug 24 · 11:00J. Kaczmarek—7760K. Hetnar—1111113
LAug 24 · 04:55J. Kaczmarek—4790K. Hetnar—1111113
LAug 11 · 05:10J. Kaczmarek—16250K. Hetnar—1811113
LAug 7 · 13:05J. Kaczmarek—51111792K. Hetnar—119311113
LAug 7 · 06:55J. Kaczmarek—111011392K. Hetnar—812611113
LAug 4 · 08:20J. Kaczmarek—41211652K. Hetnar—1110811113
LJul 29 · 13:10J. Kaczmarek—611171272K. Hetnar—1191514113
LJul 29 · 05:30J. Kaczmarek—610111152K. Hetnar—111289113
LJul 20 · 13:55J. Kaczmarek—6540K. Hetnar—1111113
J. Kaczmarek10
LSep 8 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek2.18811961M. Adamus1.5611611113LSep 7 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek2.2011181241P. Przewlocki1.6182014113LSep 7 · 13:05J. Kaczmarek2.00116681M. Adamus1.7371111113LSep 7 · 11:50J. Kaczmarek4.008550K. Hetnar1.221111113WSep 7 · 10:10J. Kaczmarek2.101110911113W. Urban1.6761211772LSep 7 · 09:00J. Kaczmarek1.806111051R. Niemiec1.9111412113WSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113LSep 4 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek3.901181281S. Szostok1.2291114113LSep 4 · 14:45O. Jadach1.2511819113J. Kaczmarek3.757111731WSep 4 · 13:30W. Tobiasz1.5791181182J. Kaczmarek2.20119116113
K. Hetnar10
WSep 8 · 03:35K. Hetnar1.141111113M. Cesarz4.509640WSep 7 · 14:20K. Hetnar1.53119911113R. Niemiec2.3871111982WSep 7 · 12:40W. Urban2.50815581K. Hetnar1.50111311113WSep 7 · 11:50J. Kaczmarek4.008550K. Hetnar1.221111113WSep 7 · 11:00K. Hetnar1.531311112113P. Przewlocki2.38111381192LSep 7 · 09:50K. Hetnar1.61511119102M. Adamus2.20115611123LSep 6 · 08:20K. Juszczyk1.9811711143K. Hetnar1.756117121LSep 6 · 07:35P. Slosarczyk4.101311113K. Hetnar1.1811940LSep 6 · 05:35G. Sawicki3.9511711113K. Hetnar1.20711861LSep 6 · 04:50R. Idaczyk2.951111153K. Hetnar1.3554130
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