TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087221
Played Sep 7Finished
Krzysztof Hetnar
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117911911119118
Rafal Niemiec
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:59 and never touched — 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Hetnar to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrzysztof Hetnar above · Rafal Niemiec below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 97 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Krzysztof Hetnar at 64.8%
97 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Hetnar 4–2 Rafal Niemiec Rafal Niemiec has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:59What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Hetnar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Hetnar
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hetnar 1448 vs Niemiec 1331
Hetnar
Correct
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hetnar 60% vs Niemiec 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hetnar 40% vs Niemiec 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hetnar +3 · Niemiec -1
Hetnar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Hetnar)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Niemiec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHetnar 1.53 / Niemiec 2.38
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Hetnar)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13087221
Hetnar1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 261 of 384
Up 2–0, closes it98% 146 of 149
Up 1–0, closes it85% 213 of 250
Niemiec2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 22 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back28% 8 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeHetnar4wins
AwayNiemiec2wins
3 of 6 to a deciderHetnar leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHetnar66.7%2 of 3
AwayNiemiec33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hetnar3Niemiec3n = 6split evenly
S2Hetnar4Niemiec2n = 6Hetnar took 4 of 6
S3Hetnar4Niemiec2n = 6Hetnar took 4 of 6
S4Hetnar2Niemiec3n = 5Niemiec took 3 of 5
S5Hetnar2Niemiec1n = 3Hetnar took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricHetnarNiemiecH − NBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match44.041.0+3.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHetnarNiemiecBasisWin rate · lifetime722 / 1174 vs 159 / 26161.5%60.9%722 / 1174 vs 159 / 261Avg sets wonper match2.32.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HetnarHetnar 1.53/Niemiec 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.8%
Hetnar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hetnar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 26 · 10:10K. Hetnar—10111117113R. Niemiec—12561962
LAug 26 · 07:45K. Hetnar—119961R. Niemiec—71111113
LJul 3 · 11:55K. Hetnar—61181172R. Niemiec—119116113
WJul 3 · 05:55K. Hetnar—1114143R. Niemiec—712120
WJun 22 · 09:00K. Hetnar—61112123R. Niemiec—11510101
WJun 22 · 04:30K. Hetnar—119114113R. Niemiec—81161172
K. Hetnar10
WSep 7 · 12:40W. Urban2.50815581K. Hetnar1.50111311113WSep 7 · 11:50J. Kaczmarek4.008550K. Hetnar1.221111113WSep 7 · 11:00K. Hetnar1.531311112113P. Przewlocki2.38111381192LSep 7 · 09:50K. Hetnar1.61511119102M. Adamus2.20115611123LSep 6 · 08:20K. Juszczyk1.9811711143K. Hetnar1.756117121LSep 6 · 07:35P. Slosarczyk4.101311113K. Hetnar1.1811940LSep 6 · 05:35G. Sawicki3.9511711113K. Hetnar1.20711861LSep 6 · 04:50R. Idaczyk2.951111153K. Hetnar1.3554130WSep 6 · 03:10W. Pytlas2.1668100K. Hetnar1.591111123LSep 4 · 02:00K. Hetnar1.5110101191K. Adamus2.3412129113
R. Niemiec10
LSep 7 · 13:30P. Przewlocki1.7311134113R. Niemiec2.008111191WSep 7 · 11:25W. Urban1.6795111182R. Niemiec2.10111165113WSep 7 · 10:35M. Adamus1.8013960R. Niemiec1.911511113WSep 7 · 09:00J. Kaczmarek1.806111051R. Niemiec1.9111412113LSep 7 · 08:10J. Nowak1.91111575113R. Niemiec1.80913111192WSep 7 · 07:20P. Przewlocki1.5311961182R. Niemiec2.38911115113LSep 7 · 05:15K. Schaniel1.801112113R. Niemiec1.9191080LSep 7 · 04:30J. Pruszkowski1.571111113R. Niemiec2.257950WSep 7 · 03:00M. Adamus1.8381111692R. Niemiec1.83117611113LSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113
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