TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13091703
Played Sep 8Finished
Krzysztof Hetnar
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411711711––––
Rafal Skotniczny
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:57 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
51 points played in total.
Set by set
411711711––––
H2H Krzysztof Hetnar 14–22 Rafal Skotniczny Krzysztof Hetnar has won 14 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:57What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hetnar
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-22 in 36
Skotniczny
Correct
gap of 8 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hetnar 1484 vs Skotniczny 1459
Hetnar
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hetnar 100% vs Skotniczny 80%
Hetnar
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hetnar 80% vs Skotniczny 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hetnar +5 · Skotniczny +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hetnar) · live re-read · sealed at 38% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skotniczny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHetnar 1.80 / Skotniczny 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hetnar)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13091703
Hetnar1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 266 of 390
Up 2–0, closes it98% 148 of 151
Up 1–0, closes it86% 218 of 255
Skotniczny1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 66 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back28% 21 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHetnar3wins
AwaySkotniczny7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSkotniczny leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHetnar50%2 of 4
AwaySkotniczny83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hetnar4Skotniczny6n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S2Hetnar6Skotniczny4n = 10Hetnar took 6 of 10
S3Hetnar2Skotniczny8n = 10Skotniczny took 8 of 10
S4Hetnar3Skotniczny3n = 6split evenly
S5Hetnar1Skotniczny3n = 4Skotniczny took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricHetnarSkotnicznyH − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.838.4−3.6per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHetnarSkotnicznyBasisWin rate · lifetime727 / 1179 vs 584 / 100961.7%57.9%727 / 1179 vs 584 / 1009Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HetnarHetnar 1.80/Skotniczny 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hetnar · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 2 · 07:10K. Hetnar—101161152R. Skotniczny—126118113
LJun 24 · 14:20K. Hetnar—111128112R. Skotniczny—641111133
LJun 24 · 06:20K. Hetnar—611451R. Skotniczny—11811113
WJun 19 · 15:55K. Hetnar—111111113R. Skotniczny—981351
WJun 19 · 09:55K. Hetnar—1113113R. Skotniczny—61190
LJun 16 · 04:00K. Hetnar—111071192R. Skotniczny—612114113
LJun 12 · 15:55K. Hetnar—5340R. Skotniczny—1111113
LJun 12 · 09:55K. Hetnar—91060R. Skotniczny—1112113
LMay 7 · 16:40K. Hetnar—7850R. Skotniczny—1111113
WMay 7 · 10:40K. Hetnar—9111110113R. Skotniczny—11941292
K. Hetnar10
WSep 8 · 06:45K. Hetnar1.3011118113A. Ruszkiewicz3.00641181WSep 8 · 05:35K. Hetnar1.441112123M. Adamus2.50410100WSep 8 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek3.20116821K. Hetnar1.2791111113WSep 8 · 03:35K. Hetnar1.141111113M. Cesarz4.509640WSep 7 · 14:20K. Hetnar1.53119911113R. Niemiec2.3871111982WSep 7 · 12:40W. Urban2.50815581K. Hetnar1.50111311113WSep 7 · 11:50J. Kaczmarek4.008550K. Hetnar1.221111113WSep 7 · 11:00K. Hetnar1.531311112113P. Przewlocki2.38111381192LSep 7 · 09:50K. Hetnar1.61511119102M. Adamus2.20115611123LSep 6 · 08:20K. Juszczyk1.9811711143K. Hetnar1.756117121
R. Skotniczny10
WSep 8 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek2.70159441R. Skotniczny1.37131111113WSep 8 · 06:25R. Skotniczny1.1981111113M. Cesarz3.80116541WSep 8 · 04:50R. Skotniczny1.57111111113M. Adamus2.16913461LSep 8 · 04:00A. Ruszkiewicz2.451111123R. Skotniczny1.4737100WSep 7 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.4581211113W. Tobiasz2.551110731WSep 7 · 15:05Y. Fomin2.401110911102R. Skotniczny1.50612116123WSep 7 · 14:20P. Mecik3.30711581R. Skotniczny1.2711811113LSep 7 · 13:30R. Skotniczny1.716690S. Szostok2.001111113WSep 7 · 12:20R. Skotniczny1.601111113G. Wichowski2.102860WSep 7 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.25411911113W. Tobiasz3.5011711532
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