TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13099470
Played Sep 9Finished
Marian Lebek
Home
1.46
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161210911116––
Michal Paszkiewicz
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Paszkiewicz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
1161210911116––
H2H Marian Lebek 30–19 Michal Paszkiewicz Michal Paszkiewicz has won 19 of their 49 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Paszkiewicz beat Lebek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:31What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (63%)
Lebek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-19 in 49
Lebek
Correct
gap of 11 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lebek 1399 vs Paszkiewicz 1375
Lebek
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lebek 20% vs Paszkiewicz 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lebek 30% vs Paszkiewicz 50%
Paszkiewicz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lebek -2 · Paszkiewicz -3
Paszkiewicz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Lebek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Paszkiewicz form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLebek 1.46 / Paszkiewicz 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Lebek)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13099470
Lebek1.46
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 238 of 389
Up 2–0, closes it96% 154 of 161
Up 1–0, closes it81% 206 of 254
Paszkiewicz2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 78 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back19% 20 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLebek6wins
AwayPaszkiewicz4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLebek leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLebek85.7%6 of 7
AwayPaszkiewicz100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lebek7Paszkiewicz3n = 10Lebek took 7 of 10
S2Lebek5Paszkiewicz5n = 10split evenly
S3Lebek7Paszkiewicz3n = 10Lebek took 7 of 10
S4Lebek3Paszkiewicz2n = 5Lebek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLebekPaszkiewiczL − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.829.7+5.1per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLebekPaszkiewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime841 / 1451 vs 430 / 80658%53.4%841 / 1451 vs 430 / 806Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LebekLebek 1.46/Paszkiewicz 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.9%
Lebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 22:50M. Lebek—141171262M. Paszkiewicz—12131110113
WSep 4 · 06:45M. Lebek—1111113M. Paszkiewicz—5680
WSep 3 · 08:00M. Lebek—11811113M. Paszkiewicz—411461
LSep 3 · 01:10M. Lebek—1151141M. Paszkiewicz—13117113
WAug 7 · 06:00M. Lebek—1111113M. Paszkiewicz—2680
WAug 5 · 05:35M. Lebek—11911113M. Paszkiewicz—711971
WJul 31 · 04:50M. Lebek—1111113M. Paszkiewicz—5340
WJul 29 · 06:00M. Lebek—1111113M. Paszkiewicz—2670
LJul 24 · 06:45M. Lebek—5121031M. Paszkiewicz—111012113
LJul 17 · 05:35M. Lebek—7870M. Paszkiewicz—1111113
M. Lebek10
LSep 9 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.72711115113M. Lebek1.9211851172LSep 9 · 01:10M. Sikon3.0511912113M. Lebek1.296111061WSep 9 · 24:25M. Lebek1.4511211113O. Sokolowski2.44611661LSep 8 · 22:50M. Lebek1.50141171262M. Paszkiewicz2.4012131110113LSep 8 · 22:00M. Adamus2.43116711113M. Lebek1.4591111662LSep 4 · 08:20M. Lebek1.36117891Y. Fomin2.8541111113WSep 4 · 06:45M. Paszkiewicz2.805680M. Lebek1.371111113LSep 4 · 06:00P. Mecik3.1011119113M. Lebek1.33861181LSep 4 · 05:10M. Lebek1.5066111182W. Urban2.35111157113WSep 4 · 04:00M. Lebek1.261111113A. Ruszkiewicz3.503450
M. Paszkiewicz10
LSep 9 · 02:20M. Adamus1.851111113M. Paszkiewicz1.854940LSep 9 · 01:35O. Sokolowski1.8351111113M. Paszkiewicz1.83117661LSep 8 · 23:35M. Tkocz1.3711511113M. Paszkiewicz2.70911931WSep 8 · 22:50M. Lebek1.50141171262M. Paszkiewicz2.4012131110113LSep 8 · 21:10M. Sikon1.90111112133M. Paszkiewicz1.8051310111WSep 4 · 08:00M. Paszkiewicz1.55116129113A. Ruszkiewicz2.25711101182LSep 4 · 06:45M. Paszkiewicz2.805680M. Lebek1.371111113WSep 4 · 05:35M. Paszkiewicz1.831213113Y. Fomin1.83101180WSep 4 · 04:25P. Mecik2.059940M. Paszkiewicz1.661111113WSep 4 · 03:35M. Paszkiewicz2.401111113W. Urban1.507950
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