TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13091492
Played Sep 8Finished
Jakub Kaczmarek
Home
1.45
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171214119117––
Milosz Cesarz
Away
2.45
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:06 and never touched — 72.2% is still 72.2%
Graded at full timeJakub Kaczmarek to win
72.2%
72.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
82 points played in total.
Set by set
1171214119117––
H2H Jakub Kaczmarek 39–15 Milosz Cesarz Milosz Cesarz has won 15 of their 54 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:06What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (63%)
Kaczmarek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-15 in 54
Kaczmarek
Correct
gap of 24 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaczmarek 1267 vs Cesarz 1124
Kaczmarek
Correct
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczmarek 0% vs Cesarz 40%
Cesarz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczmarek 20% vs Cesarz 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczmarek -5 · Cesarz +1
Kaczmarek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Kaczmarek) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaczmarek form (0%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczmarek 1.45 / Cesarz 2.45
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Kaczmarek)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13091492
Kaczmarek1.45
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 72 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it80% 57 of 71
Cesarz2.45
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog23% won 59 of 257
Down 0–1, comes back11% 20 of 183
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 124
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaczmarek7wins
AwayCesarz3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKaczmarek leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaczmarek71.4%5 of 7
AwayCesarz33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaczmarek7Cesarz3n = 10Kaczmarek took 7 of 10
S2Kaczmarek7Cesarz3n = 10Kaczmarek took 7 of 10
S3Kaczmarek2Cesarz8n = 10Cesarz took 8 of 10
S4Kaczmarek7Cesarz2n = 9Kaczmarek took 7 of 9
S5Kaczmarek2Cesarz1n = 3Kaczmarek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaczmarekCesarzK − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.239.0+3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczmarekCesarzBasisWin rate · lifetime471 / 1299 vs 152 / 54236.3%28%471 / 1299 vs 152 / 542Avg sets wonper match1.61.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.933.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaczmarekKaczmarek 1.45/Cesarz 2.45
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.2%
Kaczmarek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kaczmarek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 05:10J. Kaczmarek—1111123M. Cesarz—98100
WAug 7 · 11:50J. Kaczmarek—12119113M. Cesarz—1081161
LAug 7 · 07:45J. Kaczmarek—11691132M. Cesarz—811113113
WAug 6 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek—11111111113M. Cesarz—13135982
WAug 4 · 04:50J. Kaczmarek—11118143M. Cesarz—9611121
LJul 28 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek—1112781M. Cesarz—51411113
WJul 21 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek—811811113M. Cesarz—11811782
LJul 17 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek—711561M. Cesarz—11711113
WJul 10 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek—11208113M. Cesarz—3181191
WJul 7 · 06:25J. Kaczmarek—11117113M. Cesarz—751181
J. Kaczmarek10
LSep 8 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek2.70159441R. Skotniczny1.37131111113LSep 8 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek1.86511761A. Ruszkiewicz1.8011711113LSep 8 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek3.20116821K. Hetnar1.2791111113LSep 8 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek2.18811961M. Adamus1.5611611113LSep 7 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek2.2011181241P. Przewlocki1.6182014113LSep 7 · 13:05J. Kaczmarek2.00116681M. Adamus1.7371111113LSep 7 · 11:50J. Kaczmarek4.008550K. Hetnar1.221111113WSep 7 · 10:10J. Kaczmarek2.101110911113W. Urban1.6761211772LSep 7 · 09:00J. Kaczmarek1.806111051R. Niemiec1.9111412113WSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113
M. Cesarz10
WSep 8 · 07:35M. Cesarz2.951111610113M. Adamus1.3587111272LSep 8 · 06:25R. Skotniczny1.1981111113M. Cesarz3.80116541WSep 8 · 05:10A. Ruszkiewicz1.508890M. Cesarz2.401111113LSep 8 · 03:35K. Hetnar1.141111113M. Cesarz4.509640LSep 1 · 08:20M. Cesarz4.554970P. Adamus1.151111113LSep 1 · 06:45P. Gumulinski1.258111216153M. Cesarz3.451181414132LSep 1 · 06:00A. Ruszkiewicz1.58111111113M. Cesarz2.19613691LSep 1 · 05:10M. Cesarz2.9598100J. Kaczmarek1.351111123LSep 1 · 04:00M. Cesarz3.80146771R. Idaczyk1.21121111113LAug 27 · 08:20M. Cesarz5.7011491192M. Lebek1.09511119113
Upcoming Matches
J. Kaczmarek1 of 1 neutral
M. Cesarz
Nothing scheduled
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