TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13099394
Played Sep 9Finished
Pawel Adamus
Home
2.05
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115116118––––
Marian Lebek
Away
1.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:09 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
52 points played in total.
Set by set
115116118––––
H2H Pawel Adamus 8–6 Marian Lebek Marian Lebek has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:09What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.63 (56%)
Lebek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Adamus
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1422 vs Lebek 1429
Lebek
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 80% vs Lebek 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 60% vs Lebek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +3 · Lebek -1
Adamus
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lebek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lebek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 2.05 / Lebek 1.63
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lebek)-1.7pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13099394
Adamus2.05
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 95 of 215
Down 0–1, comes back26% 28 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 49
Lebek1.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 236 of 386
Up 2–0, closes it96% 153 of 160
Up 1–0, closes it81% 205 of 254
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus5wins
AwayLebek5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamusn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLebek62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus2Lebek8n = 10Lebek took 8 of 10
S2Adamus5Lebek5n = 10split evenly
S3Adamus4Lebek6n = 10Lebek took 6 of 10
S4Adamus4Lebek1n = 5Adamus took 4 of 5
S5Adamus2Lebek1n = 3Adamus took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusLebekA − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.637.1−3.5per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusLebekBasisWin rate · lifetime367 / 658 vs 845 / 145655.8%58%367 / 658 vs 845 / 1456Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LebekAdamus 2.05/Lebek 1.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 21:10P. Adamus—1111113M. Lebek—6980
LAug 20 · 03:10P. Adamus—81151392M. Lebek—1191111113
LJul 9 · 03:10P. Adamus—6330M. Lebek—1111113
LJun 11 · 06:45P. Adamus—9950M. Lebek—1111113
LFeb 10 · 18:10P. Adamus—9380M. Lebek—1111113
WAug 3 · 23:10P. Adamus—613128113M. Lebek—1111101122
WAug 3 · 17:10P. Adamus—116813113M. Lebek—711111162
WAug 3 · 05:10P. Adamus—51311113M. Lebek—1111671
LJul 25 · 08:45P. Adamus—91240M. Lebek—1114113
WJul 22 · 03:35P. Adamus—51111113M. Lebek—117881
P. Adamus10
WSep 9 · 02:10G. Jurowicz1.915890P. Adamus1.801111113WSep 9 · 01:25J. Nowak2.201341011142P. Adamus1.611111129163WSep 8 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.80511661P. Adamus1.9111811113LSep 8 · 22:35G. Marud2.101112113P. Adamus1.6761060WSep 8 · 21:00L. Oracz1.839790P. Adamus1.831111113LSep 8 · 20:05G. Jurowicz2.25111011133P. Adamus1.578123111WSep 8 · 19:20J. Nowak2.20981191P. Adamus1.6111119113WSep 8 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.73811491P. Adamus2.0011911113LSep 8 · 16:35L. Oracz1.67112410113P. Adamus2.108221281LSep 8 · 15:00G. Marud1.8311117113P. Adamus1.83741161
M. Lebek10
LSep 9 · 08:45M. Lebek1.45117691O. Sokolowski2.4371111113WSep 9 · 07:10M. Lebek1.7051111113M. Sikon2.00115491WSep 9 · 06:00M. Lebek1.701112113M. Adamus1.9581090WSep 9 · 04:25M. Lebek1.321111113J. Kaczmarek2.906590WSep 9 · 03:10M. Lebek1.4611129113M. Paszkiewicz2.506101161LSep 9 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.72711115113M. Lebek1.9211851172LSep 9 · 01:10M. Sikon3.0511912113M. Lebek1.296111061WSep 9 · 24:25M. Lebek1.4511211113O. Sokolowski2.44611661LSep 8 · 22:50M. Lebek1.50141171262M. Paszkiewicz2.4012131110113LSep 8 · 22:00M. Adamus2.43116711113M. Lebek1.4591111662
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