TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098553
Played Sep 9Finished
Jakub Nowak
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
131141110121191416
Pawel Adamus
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:23 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Nowak above · Pawel Adamus below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 14-16
Point 111 set 5, 14-16 — our read held Pawel Adamus at 61.3%
111 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Nowak 13–19 Pawel Adamus Jakub Nowak has won 13 of their 32 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Adamus beat Nowak 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:23What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-19 in 32
Adamus
Correct
gap of 6 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1325 vs Adamus 1410
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 40% vs Adamus 60%
Adamus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 50% vs Adamus 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak -1 · Adamus +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Adamus)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 2.20 / Adamus 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Adamus)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13098553
Nowak2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 247 of 686
Down 0–1, comes back21% 88 of 415
Down 0–2, comes back9% 21 of 241
Adamus1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 192 of 306
Up 2–0, closes it98% 89 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it77% 140 of 181
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowak5wins
AwayAdamus5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayAdamus62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowak2Adamus8n = 10Adamus took 8 of 10
S2Nowak5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S3Nowak6Adamus4n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S4Nowak3Adamus5n = 8Adamus took 5 of 8
S5Nowak3Adamus1n = 4Nowak took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowakAdamusN − ABasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match40.340.7−0.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime672 / 1741 vs 365 / 65638.6%55.6%672 / 1741 vs 365 / 656Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.640.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusNowak 2.20/Adamus 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.3%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 24:00J. Nowak—1011971P. Adamus—12911113
LAug 4 · 21:20J. Nowak—91590P. Adamus—1117113
WAug 2 · 14:20J. Nowak—114711123P. Adamus—611115102
WAug 2 · 06:20J. Nowak—91111113P. Adamus—116691
WJul 7 · 03:10J. Nowak—1011117113P. Adamus—12981192
LJul 5 · 04:25J. Nowak—91112972P. Adamus—1161011113
LJun 21 · 05:10J. Nowak—10790P. Adamus—1211113
LJun 19 · 23:55J. Nowak—851171P. Adamus—11118113
WJun 15 · 01:10J. Nowak—61211133P. Adamus—11104111
WJun 14 · 17:30J. Nowak—118118113P. Adamus—51191152
J. Nowak10
LSep 9 · 02:35L. Oracz1.671111123J. Nowak2.1058100LSep 9 · 24:10G. Marud1.911111113J. Nowak1.804880WSep 8 · 22:55G. Jurowicz1.801111119102J. Nowak1.91613811123WSep 8 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.36931113112J. Nowak3.001111411133LSep 8 · 20:30G. Marud1.671111113J. Nowak2.108950LSep 8 · 19:20J. Nowak2.20981191P. Adamus1.6111119113LSep 8 · 18:10L. Oracz1.57811118113J. Nowak2.2511851162WSep 8 · 16:55G. Jurowicz2.0011611772J. Nowak1.73811811113WSep 8 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.36881631J. Nowak3.00111114113LSep 8 · 04:20J. Nowak1.8187111192M. Sikon1.83111148113
P. Adamus10
WSep 9 · 02:10G. Jurowicz1.915890P. Adamus1.801111113WSep 8 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.80511661P. Adamus1.9111811113LSep 8 · 22:35G. Marud2.101112113P. Adamus1.6761060WSep 8 · 21:00L. Oracz1.839790P. Adamus1.831111113LSep 8 · 20:05G. Jurowicz2.25111011133P. Adamus1.578123111WSep 8 · 19:20J. Nowak2.20981191P. Adamus1.6111119113WSep 8 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.73811491P. Adamus2.0011911113LSep 8 · 16:35L. Oracz1.67112410113P. Adamus2.108221281LSep 8 · 15:00G. Marud1.8311117113P. Adamus1.83741161WSep 7 · 02:45P. Adamus1.091111113R. Ogon5.707630
Upcoming Matches
J. Nowak
Nothing scheduled
P. Adamus1 of 5 neutral
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