TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13100975
Played Sep 9Finished
Marian Lebek
Home
1.45
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117711611911––
Oliwier Sokolowski
Away
2.43
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOliwier Sokolowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
117711611911––
H2H Marian Lebek 7–6 Oliwier Sokolowski Oliwier Sokolowski has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:26What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (63%)
Lebek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lebek 1443 vs Sokolowski 1404
Lebek
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lebek 80% vs Sokolowski 40%
Lebek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lebek 50% vs Sokolowski 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lebek +4 · Sokolowski +1
Lebek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Lebek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lebek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLebek 1.45 / Sokolowski 2.43
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Lebek)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13100975
Lebek1.45
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 236 of 386
Up 2–0, closes it96% 153 of 160
Up 1–0, closes it81% 205 of 254
Sokolowski2.43
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 110 of 304
Down 0–1, comes back19% 35 of 183
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLebek6wins
AwaySokolowski4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLebek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLebek75%6 of 8
AwaySokolowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lebek8Sokolowski2n = 10Lebek took 8 of 10
S2Lebek7Sokolowski3n = 10Lebek took 7 of 10
S3Lebek3Sokolowski7n = 10Sokolowski took 7 of 10
S4Lebek5Sokolowski3n = 8Lebek took 5 of 8
S5Lebek1Sokolowski2n = 3Sokolowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLebekSokolowskiL − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.536.7+2.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLebekSokolowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime845 / 1455 vs 217 / 51158.1%42.5%845 / 1455 vs 217 / 511Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LebekLebek 1.45/Sokolowski 2.43
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.8%
Lebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sokolowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 24:25M. Lebek—11211113O. Sokolowski—611661
LSep 3 · 04:00M. Lebek—711781O. Sokolowski—11811113
WSep 3 · 24:00M. Lebek—111111113O. Sokolowski—661371
LAug 19 · 08:45M. Lebek—11481282O. Sokolowski—8111110113
LAug 13 · 07:35M. Lebek—5111181O. Sokolowski—11313113
WAug 13 · 01:35M. Lebek—127811113O. Sokolowski—101111572
WAug 12 · 03:10M. Lebek—1111113O. Sokolowski—6980
WJul 26 · 12:40M. Lebek—11128123O. Sokolowski—81011101
LJul 26 · 06:30M. Lebek—11177842O. Sokolowski—6151111113
WJun 26 · 04:50M. Lebek—1111113O. Sokolowski—6460
M. Lebek10
WSep 9 · 07:10M. Lebek1.7051111113M. Sikon2.00115491WSep 9 · 06:00M. Lebek1.701112113M. Adamus1.9581090WSep 9 · 04:25M. Lebek1.321111113J. Kaczmarek2.906590WSep 9 · 03:10M. Lebek1.4611129113M. Paszkiewicz2.506101161LSep 9 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.72711115113M. Lebek1.9211851172LSep 9 · 01:10M. Sikon3.0511912113M. Lebek1.296111061WSep 9 · 24:25M. Lebek1.4511211113O. Sokolowski2.44611661LSep 8 · 22:50M. Lebek1.50141171262M. Paszkiewicz2.4012131110113LSep 8 · 22:00M. Adamus2.43116711113M. Lebek1.4591111662LSep 4 · 08:20M. Lebek1.36117891Y. Fomin2.8541111113
O. Sokolowski10
WSep 9 · 07:35O. Sokolowski1.831111113M. Paszkiewicz1.837960LSep 9 · 06:25M. Sikon2.171111113O. Sokolowski1.567980LSep 9 · 05:10M. Adamus1.8311611123O. Sokolowski1.866114101LSep 9 · 03:35J. Kaczmarek2.1411811113O. Sokolowski1.58911871WSep 9 · 02:45M. Sikon2.00461181O. Sokolowski1.7011114113WSep 9 · 01:35O. Sokolowski1.8351111113M. Paszkiewicz1.83117661LSep 9 · 24:25M. Lebek1.4511211113O. Sokolowski2.44611661WSep 8 · 23:10M. Adamus1.8088111152O. Sokolowski1.86111155113WSep 8 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.451481111102O. Sokolowski2.55161159123LSep 5 · 08:20P. Zemla1.511111113O. Sokolowski2.408950
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