TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13099391
Played Sep 10Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
2.23
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111178111513911
Pawel Adamus
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePawel Adamus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
101 points played in total.
Set by set
5111178111513911
H2H Mariusz Baron 23–17 Pawel Adamus Pawel Adamus has won 17 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:08What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (59%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-17 in 40
Baron
Wrong
gap of 6 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1335 vs Adamus 1430
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 60% vs Adamus 80%
Adamus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 50% vs Adamus 70%
Adamus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron +2 · Adamus -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 2.23 / Adamus 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Adamus)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13099391
Baron2.23
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 195 of 491
Down 0–1, comes back24% 66 of 271
Down 0–2, comes back9% 13 of 140
Adamus1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 195 of 311
Up 2–0, closes it98% 91 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it78% 142 of 183
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron7wins
AwayAdamus3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBaron leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaron60%3 of 5
AwayAdamus20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S2Baron8Adamus2n = 10Baron took 8 of 10
S3Baron8Adamus2n = 10Baron took 8 of 10
S4Baron2Adamus6n = 8Adamus took 6 of 8
S5Baron3Adamus2n = 5Baron took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronAdamusB − ABasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.840.6+3.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime876 / 1814 vs 363 / 65348.3%55.6%876 / 1814 vs 363 / 653Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.840.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusBaron 2.23/Adamus 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 15:55M. Baron—713179143P. Adamus—11111511122
WAug 28 · 09:55M. Baron—91111113P. Adamus—118661
WAug 20 · 06:00M. Baron—511116113P. Adamus—11891172
LAug 11 · 16:20M. Baron—1113810112P. Adamus—4111112133
LAug 11 · 06:45M. Baron—581171P. Adamus—11119113
WJul 19 · 07:10M. Baron—81111113P. Adamus—118841
WJul 14 · 06:45M. Baron—1311143P. Adamus—116120
LJul 13 · 01:55M. Baron—11118482P. Adamus—891111113
WJul 12 · 19:55M. Baron—11111110113P. Adamus—61351252
WJul 11 · 01:45M. Baron—1111113P. Adamus—8980
M. Baron10
WSep 9 · 23:35M. Baron1.83111111123O. Sokolowski1.868913101WSep 9 · 22:25P. Slosarczyk2.07311101152M. Baron1.62118129113LSep 9 · 21:35M. Baron1.66411391A. Burkacki2.0111511113WSep 9 · 20:20W. Jozala2.604850M. Baron1.411111113LSep 9 · 19:35A. Ruszkiewicz2.0911119113M. Baron1.61871171LSep 9 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.55471114113M. Baron2.30111151262LSep 9 · 16:50S. Krupa1.6711814113M. Baron2.005111281WSep 9 · 15:10W. Pytlas1.5671141152M. Baron2.17118113113LSep 8 · 17:05M. Baron2.358980J. Pruszkowski1.521111113WSep 8 · 15:30M. Baron2.25121210113S. Szostok1.5510101241
P. Adamus10
LSep 10 · 24:00P. Slosarczyk2.55711811113P. Adamus1.4211611472WSep 9 · 23:10P. Adamus1.441112133A. Burkacki2.46810110WSep 9 · 22:00P. Adamus2.051111113M. Lebek1.635680WSep 9 · 02:10G. Jurowicz1.915890P. Adamus1.801111113WSep 9 · 01:25J. Nowak2.201341011142P. Adamus1.611111129163WSep 8 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.80511661P. Adamus1.9111811113LSep 8 · 22:35G. Marud2.101112113P. Adamus1.6761060WSep 8 · 21:00L. Oracz1.839790P. Adamus1.831111113LSep 8 · 20:05G. Jurowicz2.25111011133P. Adamus1.578123111WSep 8 · 19:20J. Nowak2.20981191P. Adamus1.6111119113
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