TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13109286
Played Sep 11Finished
Oskar Jadach
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
101212101311110––
Mariusz Baron
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:38 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeOskar Jadach to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOskar Jadach above · Mariusz Baron below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-0
Point 79 set 4, 11-0 — our read held Oskar Jadach at 64.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Oskar Jadach 67–37 Mariusz Baron Mariusz Baron has won 37 of their 104 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:38What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Jadach
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
67-37 in 104
Jadach
Correct
gap of 30 in 104, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadach 1437 vs Baron 1326
Jadach
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadach 60% vs Baron 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadach 40% vs Baron 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadach -1 · Baron +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Jadach) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadach 1.57 / Baron 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Jadach)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13109286
Jadach1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite67% won 318 of 476
Up 2–0, closes it94% 145 of 154
Up 1–0, closes it85% 217 of 255
Baron2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 196 of 496
Down 0–1, comes back24% 66 of 274
Down 0–2, comes back9% 13 of 141
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadach9wins
AwayBaron1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJadach leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadach100%6 of 6
AwayBaron25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadach6Baron4n = 10Jadach took 6 of 10
S2Jadach5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S3Jadach7Baron3n = 10Jadach took 7 of 10
S4Jadach6Baron0n = 6Jadach took 6 of 6
S5Jadach3Baron0n = 3Jadach took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadachBaronJ − BBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.535.5+2.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadachBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime794 / 1315 vs 874 / 181260.4%48.2%794 / 1315 vs 874 / 1812Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadachJadach 1.57/Baron 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Jadach · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jadach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 24:45O. Jadach—7111111113M. Baron—11913652
WSep 6 · 22:20O. Jadach—41111113M. Baron—118891
WAug 31 · 11:30O. Jadach—1111113M. Baron—7860
WAug 31 · 07:10O. Jadach—1112113M. Baron—81080
WAug 4 · 13:55O. Jadach—1111113M. Baron—9580
WAug 4 · 07:55O. Jadach—1041211113M. Baron—121110792
WMay 15 · 13:30O. Jadach—134012113M. Baron—1111111082
WMay 15 · 07:30O. Jadach—121013113M. Baron—10121141
WMar 31 · 03:05O. Jadach—14211113M. Baron—1211761
LMar 30 · 21:05O. Jadach—3390M. Baron—1111113
O. Jadach10
LSep 11 · 03:00O. Jadach1.53116121062P. Slosarczyk2.389111012113WSep 10 · 17:05K. Hetnar1.8611119592O. Jadach1.80451111113WSep 10 · 15:55O. Jadach1.4717111011113K. Jablonski2.4519912732LSep 10 · 14:45K. Adamus1.8291111113O. Jadach1.88117951WSep 10 · 13:30J. Pelka2.65131112892O. Jadach1.381171411113WSep 10 · 11:55W. Glanowski2.9511812101O. Jadach1.3291114123LSep 10 · 11:05K. Adamus1.851111113O. Jadach1.858790LSep 10 · 09:55O. Jadach1.709101181K. Jablonski2.0011126113LSep 10 · 08:45K. Hetnar1.83111110113O. Jadach1.87771231LSep 10 · 07:30J. Pelka2.651111113O. Jadach1.387550
M. Baron10
WSep 11 · 03:25M. Baron1.8311711113O. Sokolowski1.83811661LSep 10 · 02:00M. Baron2.208950M. Lebek1.571111113LSep 10 · 24:45M. Baron2.2351181592P. Adamus1.531171113113WSep 9 · 23:35M. Baron1.83111111123O. Sokolowski1.868913101WSep 9 · 22:25P. Slosarczyk2.07311101152M. Baron1.62118129113LSep 9 · 21:35M. Baron1.66411391A. Burkacki2.0111511113WSep 9 · 20:20W. Jozala2.604850M. Baron1.411111113LSep 9 · 19:35A. Ruszkiewicz2.0911119113M. Baron1.61871171LSep 9 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.55471114113M. Baron2.30111151262LSep 9 · 16:50S. Krupa1.6711814113M. Baron2.005111281
Upcoming Matches
O. Jadach
Sep 11 · 05:40O. Jadach1.50J. Pelka2.50—Sep 11 · 06:55O. Jadach1.73Z. Sobkow2.00—Sep 11 · 08:35O. Jadach1.44O. Sokolowski2.63—Sep 11 · 09:50O. Jadach1.50J. Pelka2.50—Sep 11 · 10:35O. Jadach1.57P. Slosarczyk2.25—Sep 11 · 12:15O. Jadach1.44O. Sokolowski2.63—Sep 11 · 13:05O. Jadach1.60Z. Sobkow2.11—Sep 11 · 13:55O. Jadach1.53M. Baron2.38—
M. Baron
Sep 11 · 05:15M. Baron1.67P. Slosarczyk2.10—Sep 11 · 06:30M. Baron1.73J. Pelka2.00—Sep 11 · 07:45M. Baron2.10Z. Sobkow1.67—Sep 11 · 09:25M. Baron1.83O. Sokolowski1.83—Sep 11 · 10:10M. Baron2.10Z. Sobkow1.67—Sep 11 · 11:25M. Baron1.67P. Slosarczyk2.10—Sep 11 · 12:40M. Baron1.73J. Pelka2.00—Sep 11 · 13:55M. Baron2.38O. Jadach1.53—
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