TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13109493
Played Sep 11Finished
Jerzy Pelka
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11411691111131315
Zbigniew Sobkow
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:38 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Sobkow to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJerzy Pelka above · Zbigniew Sobkow below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 13-15
Point 104 set 5, 13-15 — our read held Zbigniew Sobkow at 58.5%
104 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:38What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sobkow
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Pelka 1339 vs Sobkow 1388
Sobkow
Correct
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pelka 40% vs Sobkow 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pelka 50% vs Sobkow 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pelka -2 · Sobkow -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Sobkow)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobkow form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPelka 2.20 / Sobkow 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Sobkow)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13109493
Pelka2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 79 of 179
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Sobkow1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 29 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it72% 21 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricPelkaSobkowBasisWin rate · lifetime424 / 914 vs 43 / 8046.4%53.8%424 / 914 vs 43 / 80Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobkowPelka 2.20/Sobkow 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Sobkow · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sobkow won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
J. Pelka10
WSep 11 · 04:55J. Pelka1.671211113O. Sokolowski2.1010690LSep 10 · 16:40J. Pelka1.8311191172K. Jablonski1.81119116113LSep 10 · 15:05W. Glanowski2.0311911113J. Pelka1.65911881WSep 10 · 14:20K. Hetnar1.429780J. Pelka2.551111113LSep 10 · 13:30J. Pelka2.65131112892O. Jadach1.381171411113WSep 10 · 12:20J. Pelka2.36111212113K. Adamus1.487141041WSep 10 · 10:40J. Pelka1.83117117113K. Jablonski1.8191171152WSep 10 · 09:05W. Glanowski2.0341161592J. Pelka1.651141113113LSep 10 · 08:20K. Adamus1.511212113J. Pelka2.28101050WSep 10 · 07:30J. Pelka2.651111113O. Jadach1.387550
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 11 · 04:30Z. Sobkow1.50131111452P. Slosarczyk2.501113611113LSep 6 · 13:55Z. Sobkow1.834810J. Wieczerzak1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:40Z. Sobkow2.3891270P. Jedrzejak1.531114113WSep 6 · 11:25Z. Sobkow1.7371111113J. Jesiek2.00119581LSep 6 · 10:10P. Gumulinski2.11117119113Z. Sobkow1.6281161192WSep 6 · 09:25Z. Sobkow1.5011811113O. Vincenec2.50611951LSep 6 · 07:45Z. Sobkow1.8011991592P. Gumulinski1.915111113113LSep 6 · 06:30Z. Sobkow2.006650P. Jedrzejak1.731111113LSep 6 · 05:15Z. Sobkow1.4481190J. Jesiek2.631113113WSep 6 · 04:10J. Wieczerzak1.6783110Z. Sobkow2.101111133
Upcoming Matches
J. Pelka
Sep 11 · 05:40J. Pelka2.50O. Jadach1.50—Sep 11 · 06:30J. Pelka2.00M. Baron1.73—Sep 11 · 08:10J. Pelka1.53P. Slosarczyk2.38—Sep 11 · 09:50J. Pelka2.50O. Jadach1.50—Sep 11 · 11:00J. Pelka1.52O. Sokolowski2.26—Sep 11 · 11:50J. Pelka2.23Z. Sobkow1.54—Sep 11 · 12:40J. Pelka2.00M. Baron1.73—Sep 11 · 14:20J. Pelka1.53P. Slosarczyk2.38—
Z. Sobkow
Sep 11 · 06:05Z. Sobkow1.50O. Sokolowski2.50—Sep 11 · 06:55Z. Sobkow2.00O. Jadach1.73—Sep 11 · 07:45Z. Sobkow1.67M. Baron2.10—Sep 11 · 09:00Z. Sobkow1.50P. Slosarczyk2.50—Sep 11 · 10:10Z. Sobkow1.67M. Baron2.10—Sep 11 · 11:50Z. Sobkow1.54J. Pelka2.23—Sep 11 · 13:05Z. Sobkow2.11O. Jadach1.60—Sep 11 · 14:40Z. Sobkow—O. Sokolowski——
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