Jerzy Pelka vs Kacper Adamus 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesMatch #13107623

Played Sep 10Finished

Jerzy Pelka

Home

2.36

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 2

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

11712141210114––

Kacper Adamus

Away

1.48

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:33 and never touched — 58.0% is still 58.0%

Graded at full time

Kacper Adamus to win

58.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is going

Point-by-point unavailable

BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.

81 points played in total.

Set by set

11712141210114––

H2H Jerzy Pelka 32–36 Kacper Adamus Jerzy Pelka has won 32 of their 68 meetings.

Last 10 · 2–8Same sideHead to head

Same-day rematch · 4h before this match

Adamus beat Pelka 3-0.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 03:33

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.48 (61%)

Adamus

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

32-36 in 68

Adamus

Wrong

gap of 4 in 68, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Pelka 1341 vs Adamus 1427

Adamus

Wrong

both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Pelka 60% vs Adamus 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Pelka 50% vs Adamus 70%

Adamus

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Pelka +2 · Adamus +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Pelka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsPelka 2.36 / Adamus 1.48

Signal prob.36% / 64%

Edge (Adamus)+2.8pp

TT Elite Series · #13107623

Pelka2.36

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Won last 2

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog44% won 79 of 179

Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 87

Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50

Adamus1.48

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite61% won 367 of 599

Up 2–0, closes it98% 201 of 206

Up 1–0, closes it79% 292 of 369

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomePelka2wins

AwayAdamus8wins

2 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomePelka66.7%2 of 3

AwayAdamus100%7 of 7

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Pelka3Adamus7n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10

S2Pelka3Adamus7n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10

S3Pelka3Adamus7n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10

S4Pelka0Adamus4n = 4Adamus took 4 of 4

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home110%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away550%

These 10 meetings

MetricPelkaAdamusP − ABasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.338.5−5.2per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricPelkaAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime424 / 913 vs 934 / 172946.4%54%424 / 913 vs 934 / 1729Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.3per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Adamus

Pelka 2.36/Adamus 1.48

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

64.3%

Adamus · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Pelka won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

LSep 10 · 08:20J. Pelka—101050K. Adamus—1212113

WAug 26 · 16:50J. Pelka—171398113K. Adamus—1511111192

LAug 26 · 10:40J. Pelka—911891K. Adamus—11911113

LAug 25 · 13:10J. Pelka—121090K. Adamus—1412113

LAug 25 · 05:30J. Pelka—1181181K. Adamus—13119113

LAug 5 · 14:45J. Pelka—88100K. Adamus—1111123

LAug 5 · 11:05J. Pelka—4870K. Adamus—1111113

WJul 17 · 24:45J. Pelka—1111113K. Adamus—4790

LJun 17 · 13:10J. Pelka—8590K. Adamus—1111113

LJun 17 · 05:30J. Pelka—127111042K. Adamus—1011612113

J. Pelka10

WSep 10 · 10:40J. Pelka1.83117117113K. Jablonski1.8191171152 WSep 10 · 09:05W. Glanowski2.0341161592J. Pelka1.651141113113 LSep 10 · 08:20K. Adamus1.511212113J. Pelka2.28101050 WSep 10 · 07:30J. Pelka2.651111113O. Jadach1.387550 LSep 10 · 06:20J. Pelka2.45117761K. Hetnar1.4761111113 LAug 31 · 16:20J. Pelka2.755640G. Wichowski1.401111113 WAug 31 · 15:05J. Pelka1.851111113P. Mecik1.853850 LAug 31 · 13:55J. Pelka2.001224101M. Baron1.71101111123 LAug 31 · 12:45O. Jadach1.46851111113J. Pelka2.5011116692 WAug 31 · 11:55J. Pelka1.60911129113W. Buczynski2.15115101152

K. Adamus10

WSep 10 · 11:05K. Adamus1.851111113O. Jadach1.858790 LSep 10 · 09:30K. Adamus2.029101191K. Hetnar1.6511127113 WSep 10 · 08:20K. Adamus1.511212113J. Pelka2.28101050 LSep 10 · 06:45K. Adamus1.52128111192W. Glanowski2.35141179113 WSep 10 · 05:30K. Adamus1.50111011133K. Jablonski2.317125111 WSep 9 · 17:05M. Rus3.85510100K. Adamus1.191112123 LSep 9 · 15:55K. Adamus1.67511881W. Urban2.1011511113 WSep 9 · 14:45W. Buczynski2.601031181K. Adamus1.4112115113 WSep 9 · 13:30B. Madej3.20115131182K. Adamus1.305111113113 WSep 9 · 11:55S. Juzek2.486660K. Adamus1.431111113

Upcoming Matches

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K. Adamus

Sep 10 · 13:10K. Adamus1.50K. Jablonski2.31—Sep 10 · 14:45K. Adamus2.04O. Jadach1.64—Sep 10 · 15:30K. Adamus1.96K. Hetnar1.70—Sep 10 · 16:20K. Adamus1.41W. Glanowski2.60—

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