TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13101949
Played Sep 9Finished
Boguslaw Madej
Home
3.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11551113111113811
Kacper Adamus
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:03 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeKacper Adamus to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
99 points played in total.
Set by set
11551113111113811
H2H Boguslaw Madej 16–39 Kacper Adamus Boguslaw Madej has won 16 of their 55 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Adamus beat Madej 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:03What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (71%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-39 in 55
Adamus
Correct
gap of 23 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Madej 1241 vs Adamus 1408
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 166 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Madej 40% vs Adamus 80%
Adamus
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Madej 50% vs Adamus 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Madej -1 · Adamus +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMadej 3.20 / Adamus 1.30
Signal prob.25% / 76%
Edge (Adamus)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13101949
Madej3.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog31% won 41 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back20% 16 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 49
Adamus1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 360 of 589
Up 2–0, closes it98% 196 of 201
Up 1–0, closes it79% 287 of 363
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMadej3wins
AwayAdamus7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMadejn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayAdamus77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Madej1Adamus9n = 10Adamus took 9 of 10
S2Madej5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S3Madej0Adamus10n = 10Adamus took 10 of 10
S4Madej4Adamus1n = 5Madej took 4 of 5
S5Madej3Adamus2n = 5Madej took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricMadejAdamusM − ABasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match36.444.0−7.6per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMadejAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime141 / 391 vs 928 / 172036.1%54%141 / 391 vs 928 / 1720Avg sets wonper match1.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusMadej 3.20/Adamus 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.5%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 08:20B. Madej—15120K. Adamus—1711113
WAug 25 · 16:20B. Madej—412611143K. Adamus—1110118122
WAug 25 · 08:20B. Madej—8111212163K. Adamus—1171410142
LAug 18 · 13:30B. Madej—3770K. Adamus—1111113
LJul 7 · 11:30B. Madej—1611811112K. Adamus—186119133
LJul 7 · 07:10B. Madej—76100K. Adamus—1111123
LMay 26 · 17:05B. Madej—37100K. Adamus—1111123
WMay 26 · 08:45B. Madej—201185113K. Adamus—189111172
LMay 19 · 17:05B. Madej—611811102K. Adamus—116116123
LMay 19 · 08:45B. Madej—7960K. Adamus—1111113
B. Madej10
LSep 9 · 14:20M. Rus1.92912149113B. Madej1.731110121152LSep 9 · 12:20B. Madej2.4461171192W. Buczynski1.45114115113WSep 9 · 10:40B. Madej2.3511115133W. Urban1.524911111LSep 9 · 09:05S. Juzek1.501311123B. Madej2.40117100LSep 9 · 08:20K. Adamus1.231711113B. Madej3.5015120WSep 9 · 07:30B. Madej2.4471111113W. Buczynski1.45114751LSep 9 · 06:20B. Madej1.857911101M. Rus1.8511116123WSep 2 · 16:40B. Madej3.2013149113M. Adamus1.2811121161LSep 2 · 15:05S. Juzek1.5551112113B. Madej2.301191081WSep 2 · 14:20M. Rus2.201691161B. Madej1.57141113113
K. Adamus10
WSep 9 · 14:45W. Buczynski2.601031181K. Adamus1.4112115113WSep 9 · 11:55S. Juzek2.486660K. Adamus1.431111113LSep 9 · 11:05K. Adamus1.42111111772W. Buczynski2.55513611113WSep 9 · 09:30K. Adamus1.21111197113M. Rus3.7096111192WSep 9 · 08:20K. Adamus1.231711113B. Madej3.5015120WSep 9 · 06:45K. Adamus1.60712417113S. Juzek2.151110111572LSep 9 · 05:30K. Adamus1.73911114102W. Urban1.98116911123LSep 8 · 05:05O. Jadach1.911115410113K. Adamus1.80713111292LSep 8 · 03:55K. Adamus1.708670P. Kurek1.911111113WSep 8 · 02:10M. Sikon2.7575130K. Adamus1.361111153
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