TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13102233
Played Sep 9Finished
Maksymilian Rus
Home
1.92
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
91112101412911115
Boguslaw Madej
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:08 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeBoguslaw Madej to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
104 points played in total.
Set by set
91112101412911115
H2H Maksymilian Rus 20–20 Boguslaw Madej Dead even across their 40 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Rus beat Madej 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:08What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (53%)
Madej
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-20 in 40
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rus 1158 vs Madej 1235
Madej
Wrong
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rus 40% vs Madej 20%
Rus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rus 50% vs Madej 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rus +1 · Madej -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Madej) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Madej form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRus 1.92 / Madej 1.73
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Madej)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13102233
Rus1.92
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 71 of 237
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 94
Madej1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite37% won 10 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it67% 8 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRus5wins
AwayMadej5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRus75%3 of 4
AwayMadej66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rus4Madej6n = 10Madej took 6 of 10
S2Rus5Madej5n = 10split evenly
S3Rus3Madej7n = 10Madej took 7 of 10
S4Rus6Madej3n = 9Rus took 6 of 9
S5Rus4Madej3n = 7Rus took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRusMadejR − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match45.846.6−0.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRusMadejBasisWin rate · lifetime126 / 393 vs 141 / 39232.1%36%126 / 393 vs 141 / 392Avg sets wonper match1.61.6per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MadejRus 1.92/Madej 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Madej · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 06:20M. Rus—11116123B. Madej—7911101
LSep 2 · 14:20M. Rus—1691161B. Madej—141113113
WSep 2 · 06:20M. Rus—911711123B. Madej—117115102
LAug 25 · 12:45M. Rus—12111111112B. Madej—149913133
LAug 25 · 06:20M. Rus—911101142B. Madej—117129113
LAug 18 · 14:20M. Rus—810171182B. Madej—1112158113
LAug 18 · 06:20M. Rus—7380B. Madej—1111113
WJul 28 · 14:20M. Rus—1111911113B. Madej—91311742
WJul 28 · 06:20M. Rus—1111811113B. Madej—99111362
WJul 21 · 14:20M. Rus—781111113B. Madej—11119692
M. Rus10
WSep 9 · 12:45M. Rus2.701113123S. Juzek1.37811100LSep 9 · 11:30M. Rus2.9011440W. Urban1.331311113LSep 9 · 10:20S. Juzek1.41811911153M. Rus2.60114113132LSep 9 · 09:30K. Adamus1.21111197113M. Rus3.7096111192WSep 9 · 08:45M. Rus2.5561111113W. Buczynski1.41118981WSep 9 · 07:10M. Rus2.9011115113W. Urban1.33991181WSep 9 · 06:20B. Madej1.857911101M. Rus1.8511116123WSep 2 · 17:05M. Rus2.701111113W. Buczynski1.377890LSep 2 · 15:30M. Rus3.1510990R. Gajda1.301211113LSep 2 · 14:20M. Rus2.201691161B. Madej1.57141113113
B. Madej10
LSep 9 · 13:30B. Madej3.20115131182K. Adamus1.305111113113LSep 9 · 12:20B. Madej2.4461171192W. Buczynski1.45114115113WSep 9 · 10:40B. Madej2.3511115133W. Urban1.524911111LSep 9 · 09:05S. Juzek1.501311123B. Madej2.40117100LSep 9 · 08:20K. Adamus1.231711113B. Madej3.5015120WSep 9 · 07:30B. Madej2.4471111113W. Buczynski1.45114751LSep 9 · 06:20B. Madej1.857911101M. Rus1.8511116123WSep 2 · 16:40B. Madej3.2013149113M. Adamus1.2811121161LSep 2 · 15:05S. Juzek1.5551112113B. Madej2.301191081WSep 2 · 14:20M. Rus2.201691161B. Madej1.57141113113
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