TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13102549
Played Sep 9Finished
Maksymilian Rus
Home
3.85
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
51110121012––––
Kacper Adamus
Away
1.19
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:18 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeKacper Adamus to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
60 points played in total.
Set by set
51110121012––––
H2H Maksymilian Rus 13–46 Kacper Adamus Maksymilian Rus has won 13 of their 59 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Adamus beat Rus 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:18What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.19 (76%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-46 in 59
Adamus
Correct
gap of 33 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rus 1155 vs Adamus 1412
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 257 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rus 40% vs Adamus 60%
Adamus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rus 60% vs Adamus 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rus -1 · Adamus -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (60%) is below what odds imply (84%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRus 3.85 / Adamus 1.19
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Adamus)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13102549
Rus3.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 71 of 237
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 94
Adamus1.19
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 360 of 589
Up 2–0, closes it98% 196 of 201
Up 1–0, closes it79% 287 of 363
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRus0wins
AwayAdamus10wins
2 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRusn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayAdamus100%9 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rus1Adamus9n = 10Adamus took 9 of 10
S2Rus2Adamus8n = 10Adamus took 8 of 10
S3Rus2Adamus8n = 10Adamus took 8 of 10
S4Rus2Adamus3n = 5Adamus took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricRusAdamusR − ABasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match27.139.6−12.5per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRusAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime127 / 395 vs 930 / 172332.2%54%127 / 395 vs 930 / 1723Avg sets wonper match1.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusRus 3.85/Adamus 1.19
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
80.8%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 09:30M. Rus—96111192K. Adamus—111197113
LAug 25 · 15:30M. Rus—8760K. Adamus—1111113
LAug 25 · 09:30M. Rus—115981K. Adamus—81111113
LAug 18 · 17:05M. Rus—45110K. Adamus—1111133
LJul 7 · 16:40M. Rus—311371K. Adamus—11811113
LJul 7 · 10:40M. Rus—31171172K. Adamus—118119113
LJun 30 · 15:30M. Rus—2960K. Adamus—1111113
LJun 30 · 09:30M. Rus—641581K. Adamus—111113113
LJun 26 · 24:25M. Rus—7660K. Adamus—1111113
LJun 25 · 20:45M. Rus—61120K. Adamus—1113113
M. Rus10
LSep 9 · 15:30M. Rus2.557950W. Buczynski1.411111113WSep 9 · 14:20M. Rus1.92912149113B. Madej1.731110121152WSep 9 · 12:45M. Rus2.701113123S. Juzek1.37811100LSep 9 · 11:30M. Rus2.9011440W. Urban1.331311113LSep 9 · 10:20S. Juzek1.41811911153M. Rus2.60114113132LSep 9 · 09:30K. Adamus1.21111197113M. Rus3.7096111192WSep 9 · 08:45M. Rus2.5561111113W. Buczynski1.41118981WSep 9 · 07:10M. Rus2.9011115113W. Urban1.33991181WSep 9 · 06:20B. Madej1.857911101M. Rus1.8511116123WSep 2 · 17:05M. Rus2.701111113W. Buczynski1.377890
K. Adamus10
LSep 9 · 15:55K. Adamus1.67511881W. Urban2.1011511113WSep 9 · 14:45W. Buczynski2.601031181K. Adamus1.4112115113WSep 9 · 13:30B. Madej3.20115131182K. Adamus1.305111113113WSep 9 · 11:55S. Juzek2.486660K. Adamus1.431111113LSep 9 · 11:05K. Adamus1.42111111772W. Buczynski2.55513611113WSep 9 · 09:30K. Adamus1.21111197113M. Rus3.7096111192WSep 9 · 08:20K. Adamus1.231711113B. Madej3.5015120WSep 9 · 06:45K. Adamus1.60712417113S. Juzek2.151110111572LSep 9 · 05:30K. Adamus1.73911114102W. Urban1.98116911123LSep 8 · 05:05O. Jadach1.911115410113K. Adamus1.80713111292
Upcoming Matches
M. Rus
Nothing scheduled
K. Adamus
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