TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13109309
Played Sep 11Finished
Zbigniew Sobkow
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111181174111614
Mariusz Baron
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:39 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Sobkow to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbigniew Sobkow above · Mariusz Baron below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 16-14
Point 101 set 5, 16-14 — our read held Zbigniew Sobkow at 56.6%
101 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Sobkow 3–2 Mariusz Baron Mariusz Baron has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Sobkow beat Baron 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:39What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sobkow
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobkow 1358 vs Baron 1281
Sobkow
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobkow 40% vs Baron 0%
Sobkow
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobkow 40% vs Baron 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobkow -1 · Baron -5
Baron
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Sobkow)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (0%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobkow 1.67 / Baron 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Sobkow)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13109309
Sobkow1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 30 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it72% 21 of 29
Baron2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 196 of 497
Down 0–1, comes back24% 66 of 274
Down 0–2, comes back9% 13 of 141
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSobkow3wins
AwayBaron2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderSobkow leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobkow75%3 of 4
AwayBaronn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobkow4Baron1n = 5Sobkow took 4 of 5
S2Sobkow2Baron3n = 5Baron took 3 of 5
S3Sobkow1Baron4n = 5Baron took 4 of 5
S4Sobkow2Baron1n = 3Sobkow took 2 of 3
S5Sobkow2Baron1n = 3Sobkow took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricSobkowBaronS − BBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match40.639.0+1.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobkowBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 86 vs 871 / 181253.5%48.1%46 / 86 vs 871 / 1812Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobkowSobkow 1.67/Baron 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Sobkow · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sobkow won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 11 · 07:45Z. Sobkow—1211133M. Baron—108110
WAug 21 · 11:25Z. Sobkow—1212811113M. Baron—101411362
LAug 21 · 05:15Z. Sobkow—7840M. Baron—1111113
LJun 19 · 11:50Z. Sobkow—1111710102M. Baron—661112123
WJun 19 · 03:50Z. Sobkow—115711113M. Baron—41111792
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 11 · 13:05Z. Sobkow2.103770O. Jadach1.671111113LSep 11 · 11:50Z. Sobkow1.7391271192J. Pelka2.001110119113LSep 11 · 09:00Z. Sobkow1.50711101172P. Slosarczyk2.50116129113WSep 11 · 07:45M. Baron2.10108110Z. Sobkow1.671211133LSep 11 · 06:55O. Jadach1.73115116113Z. Sobkow2.0091151192WSep 11 · 06:05Z. Sobkow1.501111123O. Sokolowski2.5016100LSep 11 · 04:30Z. Sobkow1.50131111452P. Slosarczyk2.501113611113WSep 11 · 03:50J. Pelka2.201111911132Z. Sobkow1.61461113153LSep 6 · 13:55Z. Sobkow1.834810J. Wieczerzak1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:40Z. Sobkow2.3891270P. Jedrzejak1.531114113
M. Baron10
LSep 11 · 12:40M. Baron1.73711111172J. Pelka2.00111376113WSep 11 · 11:25M. Baron1.6781115113P. Slosarczyk2.101181371LSep 11 · 09:25M. Baron2.10611471O. Sokolowski1.6711411113LSep 11 · 07:45M. Baron2.10108110Z. Sobkow1.671211133LSep 11 · 06:30M. Baron1.73912211102J. Pelka2.001110119123LSep 11 · 05:15M. Baron1.6769111142P. Slosarczyk2.10111189113LSep 11 · 04:10O. Jadach1.57101213113M. Baron2.2512101101WSep 11 · 03:25M. Baron1.8311711113O. Sokolowski1.83811661LSep 10 · 02:00M. Baron2.208950M. Lebek1.571111113LSep 10 · 24:45M. Baron2.2351181592P. Adamus1.531171113113
Upcoming Matches
Z. Sobkow
Sep 11 · 14:40Z. Sobkow1.33O. Sokolowski3.25—Sep 12 · 03:25Z. Sobkow2.00K. Juszczyk1.73—Sep 12 · 04:55Z. Sobkow2.20A. Cichocki1.61—Sep 12 · 06:05Z. Sobkow1.36G. Sawicki3.00—Sep 12 · 07:20Z. Sobkow1.61M. Paszkiewicz2.20—Sep 12 · 08:35Z. Sobkow1.50P. Slosarczyk2.50—Sep 12 · 11:00Z. Sobkow2.20A. Cichocki1.61—Sep 12 · 12:15Z. Sobkow1.50P. Slosarczyk2.50—Sep 12 · 13:30Z. Sobkow1.61M. Paszkiewicz2.20—Sep 12 · 14:40Z. Sobkow1.83W. Urban1.83—
M. Baron
Nothing scheduled
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