TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110625
Played Sep 11Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111181513117––
Pawel Slosarczyk
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:03 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeMariusz Baron to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMariusz Baron above · Pawel Slosarczyk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 84 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Mariusz Baron at 57.4%
84 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Baron 17–5 Pawel Slosarczyk Pawel Slosarczyk has won 5 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:03What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Baron
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-5 in 22
Baron
Correct
gap of 12 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1291 vs Slosarczyk 1302
Slosarczyk
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 0% vs Slosarczyk 40%
Slosarczyk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 20% vs Slosarczyk 50%
Slosarczyk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron -5 · Slosarczyk -1
Baron
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Baron) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (0%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 1.67 / Slosarczyk 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Baron)-0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13110625
Baron1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 224 of 391
Up 2–0, closes it83% 105 of 126
Up 1–0, closes it70% 160 of 228
Slosarczyk2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As underdog32% won 108 of 335
Down 0–1, comes back15% 29 of 196
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron6wins
AwaySlosarczyk4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBaron leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaron85.7%6 of 7
AwaySlosarczyk100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron7Slosarczyk3n = 10Baron took 7 of 10
S2Baron4Slosarczyk6n = 10Slosarczyk took 6 of 10
S3Baron5Slosarczyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Baron4Slosarczyk4n = 8split evenly
S5Baron3Slosarczyk2n = 5Baron took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronSlosarczykB − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.439.2+2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronSlosarczykBasisWin rate · lifetime872 / 1814 vs 319 / 83148.1%38.4%872 / 1814 vs 319 / 831Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match39.835.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaronBaron 1.67/Slosarczyk 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.2%
Baron · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 05:15M. Baron—69111142P. Slosarczyk—111189113
WSep 9 · 22:25M. Baron—118129113P. Slosarczyk—311101152
LAug 10 · 03:05M. Baron—611791P. Slosarczyk—11911113
WAug 9 · 21:05M. Baron—1191511113P. Slosarczyk—61117652
WJul 30 · 23:10M. Baron—111011113P. Slosarczyk—812881
LJul 30 · 17:10M. Baron—1111101082P. Slosarczyk—791212113
WJul 20 · 01:55M. Baron—1111113P. Slosarczyk—6880
WJul 19 · 19:55M. Baron—11116113P. Slosarczyk—941131
WJun 18 · 10:35M. Baron—114113113P. Slosarczyk—51161192
LJun 16 · 21:00M. Baron—13590P. Slosarczyk—1511113
M. Baron10
LSep 11 · 13:55M. Baron2.381211111062O. Jadach1.53147912113LSep 11 · 12:40M. Baron1.73711111172J. Pelka2.00111376113LSep 11 · 10:10Z. Sobkow1.67811114163M. Baron2.10118711142LSep 11 · 09:25M. Baron2.10611471O. Sokolowski1.6711411113LSep 11 · 07:45M. Baron2.10108110Z. Sobkow1.671211133LSep 11 · 06:30M. Baron1.73912211102J. Pelka2.001110119123LSep 11 · 05:15M. Baron1.6769111142P. Slosarczyk2.10111189113LSep 11 · 04:10O. Jadach1.57101213113M. Baron2.2512101101WSep 11 · 03:25M. Baron1.8311711113O. Sokolowski1.83811661LSep 10 · 02:00M. Baron2.208950M. Lebek1.571111113
P. Slosarczyk10
WSep 11 · 13:30O. Sokolowski1.918711111P. Slosarczyk1.8011116133LSep 11 · 10:35O. Jadach1.3311911113P. Slosarczyk3.25611491WSep 11 · 09:00Z. Sobkow1.50711101172P. Slosarczyk2.50116129113LSep 11 · 08:10J. Pelka1.53513119113P. Slosarczyk2.38111181182LSep 11 · 07:20O. Sokolowski1.91911114113P. Slosarczyk1.8011991152WSep 11 · 05:15M. Baron1.6769111142P. Slosarczyk2.10111189113WSep 11 · 04:30Z. Sobkow1.50131111452P. Slosarczyk2.501113611113WSep 11 · 03:00O. Jadach1.53116121062P. Slosarczyk2.389111012113LSep 10 · 08:00J. Kaczmarek1.923P. Slosarczyk1.731WSep 10 · 07:10M. Lebek1.356111011102P. Slosarczyk2.75119127123
Upcoming Matches
M. Baron
Nothing scheduled
P. Slosarczyk
Sep 12 · 03:00P. Slosarczyk2.25M. Paszkiewicz1.57—Sep 12 · 04:10P. Slosarczyk2.63K. Juszczyk1.44—Sep 12 · 05:40P. Slosarczyk5.50A. Cichocki1.13—Sep 12 · 06:55P. Slosarczyk1.67G. Sawicki2.10—Sep 12 · 08:35P. Slosarczyk2.50Z. Sobkow1.50—Sep 12 · 09:50P. Slosarczyk5.50A. Cichocki1.13—Sep 12 · 10:35P. Slosarczyk2.25M. Paszkiewicz1.57—Sep 12 · 12:15P. Slosarczyk2.50Z. Sobkow1.50—Sep 12 · 13:05P. Slosarczyk3.00W. Urban1.36—Sep 12 · 13:55P. Slosarczyk2.63K. Juszczyk1.44—
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