TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13109271
Played Sep 11Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111113117116711
Jerzy Pelka
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:40 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeMariusz Baron to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMariusz Baron above · Jerzy Pelka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 95 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Mariusz Baron at 54.5%
95 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Baron 24–20 Jerzy Pelka Jerzy Pelka has won 20 of their 44 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Pelka beat Baron 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:40What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Baron
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-20 in 44
Baron
Wrong
gap of 4 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1268 vs Pelka 1415
Pelka
Correct
both rated, 147 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 20% vs Pelka 80%
Pelka
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 20% vs Pelka 60%
Pelka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron +1 · Pelka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Baron) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pelka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 1.73 / Pelka 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Baron)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13109271
Baron1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 224 of 391
Up 2–0, closes it83% 105 of 126
Up 1–0, closes it70% 160 of 228
Pelka2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 83 of 188
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron5wins
AwayPelka5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaron66.7%2 of 3
AwayPelka57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron3Pelka7n = 10Pelka took 7 of 10
S2Baron7Pelka3n = 10Baron took 7 of 10
S3Baron5Pelka5n = 10split evenly
S4Baron7Pelka1n = 8Baron took 7 of 8
S5Baron1Pelka4n = 5Pelka took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronPelkaB − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.438.5+1.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronPelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime872 / 1815 vs 431 / 92348%46.7%872 / 1815 vs 431 / 923Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaronBaron 1.73/Pelka 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Baron · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 12:40M. Baron—711111172J. Pelka—111376113
LSep 11 · 06:30M. Baron—912211102J. Pelka—1110119123
WAug 31 · 13:55M. Baron—101111123J. Pelka—1224101
WAug 31 · 07:55M. Baron—11119113J. Pelka—561171
LAug 4 · 11:55M. Baron—7880J. Pelka—1111113
WAug 4 · 05:55M. Baron—51111113J. Pelka—114691
WJul 14 · 13:10M. Baron—811911123J. Pelka—117115102
LJul 14 · 05:30M. Baron—11711562J. Pelka—411811113
LMar 5 · 12:55M. Baron—41161292J. Pelka—1181110113
WMar 5 · 06:55M. Baron—1111113J. Pelka—8880
M. Baron10
WSep 11 · 11:25M. Baron1.6781115113P. Slosarczyk2.101181371LSep 11 · 10:10Z. Sobkow1.67811114163M. Baron2.10118711142LSep 11 · 09:25M. Baron2.10611471O. Sokolowski1.6711411113LSep 11 · 07:45M. Baron2.10108110Z. Sobkow1.671211133LSep 11 · 06:30M. Baron1.73912211102J. Pelka2.001110119123LSep 11 · 05:15M. Baron1.6769111142P. Slosarczyk2.10111189113LSep 11 · 04:10O. Jadach1.57101213113M. Baron2.2512101101WSep 11 · 03:25M. Baron1.8311711113O. Sokolowski1.83811661LSep 10 · 02:00M. Baron2.208950M. Lebek1.571111113LSep 10 · 24:45M. Baron2.2351181592P. Adamus1.531171113113
J. Pelka10
WSep 11 · 11:50Z. Sobkow1.7391271192J. Pelka2.001110119113LSep 11 · 11:00J. Pelka1.50861111112O. Sokolowski2.50111148133WSep 11 · 09:50J. Pelka2.7511611113O. Jadach1.40311891WSep 11 · 08:10J. Pelka1.53513119113P. Slosarczyk2.38111181182WSep 11 · 06:30M. Baron1.73912211102J. Pelka2.001110119123WSep 11 · 05:40O. Jadach1.50612781J. Pelka2.50111011113WSep 11 · 04:55J. Pelka1.671211113O. Sokolowski2.1010690LSep 11 · 03:50J. Pelka2.201111911132Z. Sobkow1.61461113153LSep 10 · 16:40J. Pelka1.8311191172K. Jablonski1.81119116113LSep 10 · 15:05W. Glanowski2.0311911113J. Pelka1.65911881
Upcoming Matches
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J. Pelka
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