TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13112023
Played Sep 11Finished
Jerzy Pelka
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8116111141181113
Oskar Sokolowski
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJerzy Pelka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJerzy Pelka above · Oskar Sokolowski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 94 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Jerzy Pelka at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jerzy Pelka 2–0 Oskar Sokolowski Oskar Sokolowski has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:34What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Pelka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Pelka 1398 vs Sokolowski 1238
Pelka
Wrong
both rated, 160 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pelka 100% vs Sokolowski 40%
Pelka
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pelka 60% vs Sokolowski 30%
Pelka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pelka +5 · Sokolowski +1
Pelka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Pelka) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pelka form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPelka 1.50 / Sokolowski 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Pelka)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13112023
Pelka1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite49% won 96 of 195
Up 2–0, closes it88% 45 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it64% 67 of 105
Sokolowski2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog29% won 63 of 216
Down 0–1, comes back16% 22 of 137
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePelka2wins
AwaySokolowski0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderPelka leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPelkaSokolowskiP − SBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match42.533.5+9.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPelkaSokolowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime429 / 920 vs 113 / 34346.6%32.9%429 / 920 vs 113 / 343Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PelkaPelka 1.50/Sokolowski 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.3%
Pelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sokolowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 11 · 04:55J. Pelka—1211113O. Sokolowski—10690
WJun 23 · 07:10J. Pelka—1081111113O. Sokolowski—12117752
J. Pelka10
WSep 11 · 12:40M. Baron1.73711111172J. Pelka2.00111376113WSep 11 · 11:50Z. Sobkow1.7391271192J. Pelka2.001110119113WSep 11 · 09:50J. Pelka2.7511611113O. Jadach1.40311891WSep 11 · 08:10J. Pelka1.53513119113P. Slosarczyk2.38111181182WSep 11 · 06:30M. Baron1.73912211102J. Pelka2.001110119123WSep 11 · 05:40O. Jadach1.50612781J. Pelka2.50111011113WSep 11 · 04:55J. Pelka1.671211113O. Sokolowski2.1010690LSep 11 · 03:50J. Pelka2.201111911132Z. Sobkow1.61461113153LSep 10 · 16:40J. Pelka1.8311191172K. Jablonski1.81119116113LSep 10 · 15:05W. Glanowski2.0311911113J. Pelka1.65911881
O. Sokolowski10
LSep 11 · 13:30O. Sokolowski1.918711111P. Slosarczyk1.8011116133WSep 11 · 12:15O. Jadach1.28871191O. Sokolowski3.5011117113WSep 11 · 09:25M. Baron2.10611471O. Sokolowski1.6711411113LSep 11 · 08:35O. Jadach1.441311113O. Sokolowski2.6311930WSep 11 · 07:20O. Sokolowski1.91911114113P. Slosarczyk1.8011991152LSep 11 · 06:05Z. Sobkow1.501111123O. Sokolowski2.5016100LSep 11 · 04:55J. Pelka1.671211113O. Sokolowski2.1010690LSep 11 · 03:25M. Baron1.8311711113O. Sokolowski1.83811661LAug 31 · 13:55K. Schaniel1.571110116113O. Sokolowski2.2591281182LAug 31 · 13:05P. Brozek1.401111113O. Sokolowski2.758480
Upcoming Matches
J. Pelka
Nothing scheduled
O. Sokolowski
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.