TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13112017
Played Sep 11Finished
Zbigniew Sobkow
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111210711119911
Jerzy Pelka
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJerzy Pelka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbigniew Sobkow above · Jerzy Pelka below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 100 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Jerzy Pelka at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Sobkow 1–1 Jerzy Pelka Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:33What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sobkow
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sobkow 1356 vs Pelka 1415
Pelka
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobkow 60% vs Pelka 80%
Pelka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobkow 50% vs Pelka 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobkow +1 · Pelka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sobkow) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pelka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobkow 1.73 / Pelka 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sobkow)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13112017
Sobkow1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 30 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it72% 21 of 29
Pelka2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 83 of 188
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSobkow1wins
AwayPelka1wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSobkowPelkaS − PBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match48.553.5−5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobkowPelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 88 vs 431 / 92353.4%46.7%47 / 88 vs 431 / 923Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobkowSobkow 1.73/Pelka 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sobkow · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 11 · 11:50Z. Sobkow—91271192J. Pelka—1110119113
WSep 11 · 03:50Z. Sobkow—461113153J. Pelka—1111911132
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 11 · 13:05Z. Sobkow2.103770O. Jadach1.671111113WSep 11 · 10:10Z. Sobkow1.67811114163M. Baron2.10118711142LSep 11 · 09:00Z. Sobkow1.50711101172P. Slosarczyk2.50116129113WSep 11 · 07:45M. Baron2.10108110Z. Sobkow1.671211133LSep 11 · 06:55O. Jadach1.73115116113Z. Sobkow2.0091151192WSep 11 · 06:05Z. Sobkow1.501111123O. Sokolowski2.5016100LSep 11 · 04:30Z. Sobkow1.50131111452P. Slosarczyk2.501113611113WSep 11 · 03:50J. Pelka2.201111911132Z. Sobkow1.61461113153LSep 6 · 13:55Z. Sobkow1.834810J. Wieczerzak1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:40Z. Sobkow2.3891270P. Jedrzejak1.531114113
J. Pelka10
WSep 11 · 12:40M. Baron1.73711111172J. Pelka2.00111376113LSep 11 · 11:00J. Pelka1.50861111112O. Sokolowski2.50111148133WSep 11 · 09:50J. Pelka2.7511611113O. Jadach1.40311891WSep 11 · 08:10J. Pelka1.53513119113P. Slosarczyk2.38111181182WSep 11 · 06:30M. Baron1.73912211102J. Pelka2.001110119123WSep 11 · 05:40O. Jadach1.50612781J. Pelka2.50111011113WSep 11 · 04:55J. Pelka1.671211113O. Sokolowski2.1010690LSep 11 · 03:50J. Pelka2.201111911132Z. Sobkow1.61461113153LSep 10 · 16:40J. Pelka1.8311191172K. Jablonski1.81119116113LSep 10 · 15:05W. Glanowski2.0311911113J. Pelka1.65911881
Upcoming Matches
Z. Sobkow
Sep 11 · 14:40Z. Sobkow1.33O. Sokolowski3.25—Sep 12 · 03:25Z. Sobkow2.00K. Juszczyk1.73—Sep 12 · 04:55Z. Sobkow2.20A. Cichocki1.61—Sep 12 · 06:05Z. Sobkow1.36G. Sawicki3.00—Sep 12 · 07:20Z. Sobkow1.61M. Paszkiewicz2.20—Sep 12 · 08:35Z. Sobkow1.50P. Slosarczyk2.50—Sep 12 · 11:00Z. Sobkow2.20A. Cichocki1.61—Sep 12 · 12:15Z. Sobkow1.50P. Slosarczyk2.50—Sep 12 · 13:30Z. Sobkow1.61M. Paszkiewicz2.20—Sep 12 · 14:40Z. Sobkow1.83W. Urban1.83—
J. Pelka
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