TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110151
Played Sep 11Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611114411711––
Oskar Sokolowski
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMariusz Baron to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMariusz Baron above · Oskar Sokolowski below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 65 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Mariusz Baron at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Baron 6–4 Oskar Sokolowski Oskar Sokolowski has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:33What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sokolowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Baron
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1285 vs Sokolowski 1243
Baron
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 20% vs Sokolowski 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 30% vs Sokolowski 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron -4 · Sokolowski -1
Baron
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Sokolowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sokolowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 2.10 / Sokolowski 1.67
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Sokolowski)-0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13110151
Baron2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 196 of 497
Down 0–1, comes back24% 66 of 274
Down 0–2, comes back9% 13 of 141
Sokolowski1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 29 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it81% 21 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron6wins
AwaySokolowski4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBaron leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaron71.4%5 of 7
AwaySokolowski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron7Sokolowski3n = 10Baron took 7 of 10
S2Baron6Sokolowski4n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S3Baron4Sokolowski6n = 10Sokolowski took 6 of 10
S4Baron3Sokolowski5n = 8Sokolowski took 5 of 8
S5Baron2Sokolowski1n = 3Baron took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronSokolowskiB − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.139.5+3.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronSokolowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime871 / 1811 vs 112 / 34248.1%32.8%871 / 1811 vs 112 / 342Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SokolowskiBaron 2.10/Sokolowski 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.4%
Sokolowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sokolowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 03:25M. Baron—11711113O. Sokolowski—811661
WJul 26 · 16:25M. Baron—1111113O. Sokolowski—8990
LJul 11 · 24:35M. Baron—1111910112O. Sokolowski—531112133
WJul 10 · 18:30M. Baron—11118133O. Sokolowski—5811111
LJul 3 · 21:00M. Baron—15121181O. Sokolowski—171013113
WJul 3 · 16:35M. Baron—9111110113O. Sokolowski—11461272
LJun 26 · 12:15M. Baron—13980O. Sokolowski—1511113
WJun 26 · 08:35M. Baron—11911163O. Sokolowski—8118141
LJun 17 · 02:35M. Baron—128991O. Sokolowski—101111113
WJun 16 · 16:15M. Baron—1111125113O. Sokolowski—79141162
M. Baron10
LSep 11 · 07:45M. Baron2.10108110Z. Sobkow1.671211133LSep 11 · 06:30M. Baron1.73912211102J. Pelka2.001110119123LSep 11 · 05:15M. Baron1.6769111142P. Slosarczyk2.10111189113LSep 11 · 04:10O. Jadach1.57101213113M. Baron2.2512101101WSep 11 · 03:25M. Baron1.8311711113O. Sokolowski1.83811661LSep 10 · 02:00M. Baron2.208950M. Lebek1.571111113LSep 10 · 24:45M. Baron2.2351181592P. Adamus1.531171113113WSep 9 · 23:35M. Baron1.83111111123O. Sokolowski1.868913101WSep 9 · 22:25P. Slosarczyk2.07311101152M. Baron1.62118129113LSep 9 · 21:35M. Baron1.66411391A. Burkacki2.0111511113
O. Sokolowski10
LSep 11 · 08:35O. Jadach1.441311113O. Sokolowski2.6311930WSep 11 · 07:20O. Sokolowski1.91911114113P. Slosarczyk1.8011991152LSep 11 · 06:05Z. Sobkow1.501111123O. Sokolowski2.5016100LSep 11 · 04:55J. Pelka1.671211113O. Sokolowski2.1010690LSep 11 · 03:25M. Baron1.8311711113O. Sokolowski1.83811661LAug 31 · 13:55K. Schaniel1.571110116113O. Sokolowski2.2591281182LAug 31 · 13:05P. Brozek1.401111113O. Sokolowski2.758480WAug 31 · 12:15O. Sokolowski1.36111111173I. Szymanski3.004137151LAug 31 · 10:35O. Sokolowski3.7511139792W. Wojtaszczyk1.255111111113WAug 31 · 09:50P. Przewlocki1.5051171192O. Sokolowski2.50115115113
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