TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13109682
Played Sep 11Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12141171191012611
Oskar Jadach
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:23 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeOskar Jadach to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMariusz Baron above · Oskar Jadach below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 103 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Oskar Jadach at 62.1%
103 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Baron 37–67 Oskar Jadach Mariusz Baron has won 37 of their 104 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:23What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Jadach
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-67 in 104
Jadach
Correct
gap of 30 in 104, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1268 vs Jadach 1443
Jadach
Correct
both rated, 174 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 20% vs Jadach 60%
Jadach
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 20% vs Jadach 60%
Jadach
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron -1 · Jadach +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Jadach) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 2.38 / Jadach 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Jadach)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13109682
Baron2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 196 of 497
Down 0–1, comes back24% 66 of 274
Down 0–2, comes back9% 13 of 141
Jadach1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 322 of 481
Up 2–0, closes it94% 146 of 155
Up 1–0, closes it85% 218 of 257
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron1wins
AwayJadach9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJadach leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaron25%1 of 4
AwayJadach100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron4Jadach6n = 10Jadach took 6 of 10
S2Baron5Jadach5n = 10split evenly
S3Baron3Jadach7n = 10Jadach took 7 of 10
S4Baron0Jadach6n = 6Jadach took 6 of 6
S5Baron0Jadach3n = 3Jadach took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronJadachB − JBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.537.5−2.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronJadachBasisWin rate · lifetime872 / 1815 vs 799 / 132348%60.4%872 / 1815 vs 799 / 1323Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadachBaron 2.38/Jadach 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Jadach · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jadach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 24:45M. Baron—11913652O. Jadach—7111111113
LSep 6 · 22:20M. Baron—118891O. Jadach—41111113
LAug 31 · 11:30M. Baron—7860O. Jadach—1111113
LAug 31 · 07:10M. Baron—81080O. Jadach—1112113
LAug 4 · 13:55M. Baron—9580O. Jadach—1111113
LAug 4 · 07:55M. Baron—121110792O. Jadach—1041211113
LMay 15 · 13:30M. Baron—1111111082O. Jadach—134012113
LMay 15 · 07:30M. Baron—10121141O. Jadach—121013113
LMar 31 · 03:05M. Baron—1211761O. Jadach—14211113
WMar 30 · 21:05M. Baron—1111113O. Jadach—3390
M. Baron10
LSep 11 · 12:40M. Baron1.73711111172J. Pelka2.00111376113WSep 11 · 11:25M. Baron1.6781115113P. Slosarczyk2.101181371LSep 11 · 10:10Z. Sobkow1.67811114163M. Baron2.10118711142LSep 11 · 09:25M. Baron2.10611471O. Sokolowski1.6711411113LSep 11 · 07:45M. Baron2.10108110Z. Sobkow1.671211133LSep 11 · 06:30M. Baron1.73912211102J. Pelka2.001110119123LSep 11 · 05:15M. Baron1.6769111142P. Slosarczyk2.10111189113LSep 11 · 04:10O. Jadach1.57101213113M. Baron2.2512101101WSep 11 · 03:25M. Baron1.8311711113O. Sokolowski1.83811661LSep 10 · 02:00M. Baron2.208950M. Lebek1.571111113
O. Jadach10
WSep 11 · 13:05Z. Sobkow2.103770O. Jadach1.671111113LSep 11 · 12:15O. Jadach1.28871191O. Sokolowski3.5011117113WSep 11 · 10:35O. Jadach1.3311911113P. Slosarczyk3.25611491LSep 11 · 09:50J. Pelka2.7511611113O. Jadach1.40311891WSep 11 · 08:35O. Jadach1.441311113O. Sokolowski2.6311930WSep 11 · 06:55O. Jadach1.73115116113Z. Sobkow2.0091151192LSep 11 · 05:40O. Jadach1.50612781J. Pelka2.50111011113WSep 11 · 04:10O. Jadach1.57101213113M. Baron2.2512101101LSep 11 · 03:00O. Jadach1.53116121062P. Slosarczyk2.389111012113WSep 10 · 17:05K. Hetnar1.8611119592O. Jadach1.80451111113
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