TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114806
Played Sep 12Finished
Zbigniew Sobkow
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111171012611––
Michal Paszkiewicz
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:15 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Sobkow to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZbigniew Sobkow above · Michal Paszkiewicz below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 75 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Zbigniew Sobkow at 57.7%
75 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Sobkow 4–1 Michal Paszkiewicz Michal Paszkiewicz has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:15What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sobkow
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Sobkow
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobkow 1306 vs Paszkiewicz 1313
Paszkiewicz
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobkow 20% vs Paszkiewicz 0%
Sobkow
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobkow 30% vs Paszkiewicz 10%
Sobkow
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobkow +1 · Paszkiewicz -5
Paszkiewicz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Sobkow) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Paszkiewicz form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobkow 1.61 / Paszkiewicz 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Sobkow)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13114806
Sobkow1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 33 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it85% 17 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it70% 23 of 33
Paszkiewicz2.20
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog44% won 78 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back19% 20 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSobkow4wins
AwayPaszkiewicz1wins
3 of 5 to a deciderSobkow leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobkow100%3 of 3
AwayPaszkiewiczn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobkow3Paszkiewicz2n = 5Sobkow took 3 of 5
S2Sobkow5Paszkiewicz0n = 5Sobkow took 5 of 5
S3Sobkow2Paszkiewicz3n = 5Paszkiewicz took 3 of 5
S4Sobkow0Paszkiewicz4n = 4Paszkiewicz took 4 of 4
S5Sobkow3Paszkiewicz0n = 3Sobkow took 3 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home360%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSobkowPaszkiewiczS − PBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match42.441.0+1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobkowPaszkiewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 94 vs 425 / 80151.1%53.1%48 / 94 vs 425 / 801Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobkowSobkow 1.61/Paszkiewicz 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Sobkow · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Paszkiewicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 12 · 07:20Z. Sobkow—7111061M. Paszkiewicz—11712113
WAug 21 · 14:20Z. Sobkow—111496123M. Paszkiewicz—9121111102
WAug 21 · 08:10Z. Sobkow—811113113M. Paszkiewicz—11881192
WJun 19 · 11:00Z. Sobkow—141176113M. Paszkiewicz—126111182
WJun 19 · 04:55Z. Sobkow—1111113M. Paszkiewicz—8620
Z. Sobkow10
WSep 12 · 06:05G. Sawicki3.00641181Z. Sobkow1.3611114113LSep 12 · 04:55A. Cichocki1.531741112113Z. Sobkow2.38151191422LSep 12 · 03:25K. Juszczyk1.7381111113Z. Sobkow2.00118881LSep 11 · 14:40Z. Sobkow1.33111291062O. Sokolowski3.258101112113LSep 11 · 13:05Z. Sobkow2.103770O. Jadach1.671111113LSep 11 · 11:50Z. Sobkow1.7391271192J. Pelka2.001110119113WSep 11 · 10:10Z. Sobkow1.67811114163M. Baron2.10118711142LSep 11 · 09:00Z. Sobkow1.50711101172P. Slosarczyk2.50116129113WSep 11 · 07:45M. Baron2.10108110Z. Sobkow1.671211133LSep 11 · 06:55O. Jadach1.73115116113Z. Sobkow2.0091151192
M. Paszkiewicz10
LSep 12 · 08:10A. Cichocki1.4011159113M. Paszkiewicz2.757131181LSep 12 · 05:15K. Juszczyk1.53111129113M. Paszkiewicz2.3899111192LSep 12 · 04:30G. Sawicki2.5011118113M. Paszkiewicz1.50971171LSep 12 · 03:00P. Slosarczyk2.251111123M. Paszkiewicz1.5745100LSep 9 · 08:20M. Adamus1.8811119113M. Paszkiewicz1.82971181LSep 9 · 07:35O. Sokolowski1.831111113M. Paszkiewicz1.837960WSep 9 · 05:35J. Kaczmarek2.103670M. Paszkiewicz1.601111113LSep 9 · 04:50M. Sikon2.00111110113M. Paszkiewicz1.71591261LSep 9 · 03:10M. Lebek1.4611129113M. Paszkiewicz2.506101161LSep 9 · 02:20M. Adamus1.851111113M. Paszkiewicz1.854940
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