TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114685
Played Sep 12Finished
Aleksander Cichocki
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
17154111191214112
Zbigniew Sobkow
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:52 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeAleksander Cichocki to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAleksander Cichocki above · Zbigniew Sobkow below
Set 1 · 17-15
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 106 set 5, 11-2 — our read held Aleksander Cichocki at 60.5%
106 points played in total.
H2H Aleksander Cichocki 2–2 Zbigniew Sobkow Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:52What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Cichocki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cichocki 1493 vs Sobkow 1327
Cichocki
Correct
both rated, 166 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cichocki 80% vs Sobkow 20%
Cichocki
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cichocki 80% vs Sobkow 30%
Cichocki
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cichocki +2 · Sobkow -4
Sobkow
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Cichocki) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobkow form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCichocki 1.53 / Sobkow 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Cichocki)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13114685
Cichocki1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite70% won 78 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it91% 60 of 66
Sobkow2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 10 of 25
Down 0–1, comes back15% 2 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeCichocki2wins
AwaySobkow2wins
3 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cichocki2Sobkow2n = 4split evenly
S2Cichocki1Sobkow3n = 4Sobkow took 3 of 4
S3Cichocki2Sobkow2n = 4split evenly
S4Cichocki1Sobkow2n = 3Sobkow took 2 of 3
S5Cichocki2Sobkow1n = 3Cichocki took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricCichockiSobkowC − SBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match42.242.0+0.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCichockiSobkowBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 173 vs 47 / 9162.4%51.7%108 / 173 vs 47 / 91Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CichockiCichocki 1.53/Sobkow 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Cichocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cichocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 23 · 10:35A. Cichocki—1110117113Z. Sobkow—61241152
LAug 23 · 03:00A. Cichocki—7560Z. Sobkow—1111113
LAug 22 · 09:00A. Cichocki—81111992Z. Sobkow—117711113
WAug 22 · 04:30A. Cichocki—138911123Z. Sobkow—1111117102
A. Cichocki10
WSep 12 · 05:40P. Slosarczyk5.5044100A. Cichocki1.131111123WSep 12 · 03:50A. Cichocki1.2511911113G. Sawicki3.75711981WAug 30 · 13:55A. Cichocki1.141211113P. Slosarczyk5.0010790LAug 30 · 12:40A. Cichocki1.5751151132M. Lach2.25118117113WAug 30 · 11:25A. Cichocki1.7381112123J. Wieczerzak2.0011710101WAug 30 · 10:10O. Sokolowski2.5011491562A. Cichocki1.467111113113WAug 30 · 09:25A. Cichocki1.2011611113R. Idaczyk4.33611591WAug 30 · 07:45A. Cichocki1.361111113O. Sokolowski3.002890WAug 30 · 06:30A. Cichocki1.671111113M. Lach2.109980LAug 30 · 05:15A. Cichocki1.73149561J. Wieczerzak2.00121111113
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 12 · 03:25K. Juszczyk1.7381111113Z. Sobkow2.00118881LSep 11 · 14:40Z. Sobkow1.33111291062O. Sokolowski3.258101112113LSep 11 · 13:05Z. Sobkow2.103770O. Jadach1.671111113LSep 11 · 11:50Z. Sobkow1.7391271192J. Pelka2.001110119113WSep 11 · 10:10Z. Sobkow1.67811114163M. Baron2.10118711142LSep 11 · 09:00Z. Sobkow1.50711101172P. Slosarczyk2.50116129113WSep 11 · 07:45M. Baron2.10108110Z. Sobkow1.671211133LSep 11 · 06:55O. Jadach1.73115116113Z. Sobkow2.0091151192WSep 11 · 06:05Z. Sobkow1.501111123O. Sokolowski2.5016100LSep 11 · 04:30Z. Sobkow1.50131111452P. Slosarczyk2.501113611113
Upcoming Matches
A. Cichocki1 of 7 neutral
Sep 12 · 06:30A. Cichocki1.61K. Juszczyk2.20—Sep 12 · 08:10A. Cichocki1.40M. Paszkiewicz2.75—Sep 12 · 09:50A. Cichocki1.13P. Slosarczyk5.50—Sep 12 · 11:00A. Cichocki1.57Z. Sobkow2.25—Sep 12 · 11:50A. Cichocki1.50W. Urban2.50—Sep 12 · 12:40A. Cichocki—K. Juszczyk——Sep 12 · 14:20A. Cichocki—M. Paszkiewicz——
Z. Sobkow
Sep 12 · 07:20Z. Sobkow1.61M. Paszkiewicz2.20—Sep 12 · 08:35Z. Sobkow1.53P. Slosarczyk2.38—Sep 12 · 09:25Z. Sobkow1.72K. Juszczyk1.92—Sep 12 · 11:00Z. Sobkow2.25A. Cichocki1.57—Sep 12 · 12:15Z. Sobkow1.50P. Slosarczyk2.50—Sep 12 · 13:30Z. Sobkow1.61M. Paszkiewicz2.20—Sep 12 · 14:40Z. Sobkow1.91W. Urban1.80—
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