TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13112744
Played Sep 11Finished
Zbigniew Sobkow
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11812109111012611
Oskar Sokolowski
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOskar Sokolowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbigniew Sobkow above · Oskar Sokolowski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 100 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Oskar Sokolowski at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Sobkow 1–0 Oskar Sokolowski Oskar Sokolowski has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 9h before this match
Sobkow beat Sokolowski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:33What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Sobkow
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sobkow 1345 vs Sokolowski 1270
Sobkow
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobkow 40% vs Sokolowski 60%
Sokolowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobkow 40% vs Sokolowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobkow -2 · Sokolowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Sobkow) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sokolowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobkow 1.33 / Sokolowski 3.25
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Sobkow)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13112744
Sobkow1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 30 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it72% 21 of 29
Sokolowski3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog29% won 63 of 216
Down 0–1, comes back16% 22 of 137
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSobkow1wins
AwaySokolowski0wins
Sobkow leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSobkowSokolowskiSobkow − SokolowskiBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match34.017.0+17.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobkowSokolowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 89 vs 115 / 34652.8%33.2%47 / 89 vs 115 / 346Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobkowSobkow 1.33/Sokolowski 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.7%
Sobkow · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sokolowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 11 · 06:05Z. Sobkow—1111123O. Sokolowski—16100
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 11 · 13:05Z. Sobkow2.103770O. Jadach1.671111113LSep 11 · 11:50Z. Sobkow1.7391271192J. Pelka2.001110119113WSep 11 · 10:10Z. Sobkow1.67811114163M. Baron2.10118711142LSep 11 · 09:00Z. Sobkow1.50711101172P. Slosarczyk2.50116129113WSep 11 · 07:45M. Baron2.10108110Z. Sobkow1.671211133LSep 11 · 06:55O. Jadach1.73115116113Z. Sobkow2.0091151192WSep 11 · 06:05Z. Sobkow1.501111123O. Sokolowski2.5016100LSep 11 · 04:30Z. Sobkow1.50131111452P. Slosarczyk2.501113611113WSep 11 · 03:50J. Pelka2.201111911132Z. Sobkow1.61461113153LSep 6 · 13:55Z. Sobkow1.834810J. Wieczerzak1.831111113
O. Sokolowski10
LSep 11 · 13:30O. Sokolowski1.918711111P. Slosarczyk1.8011116133WSep 11 · 12:15O. Jadach1.28871191O. Sokolowski3.5011117113WSep 11 · 11:00J. Pelka1.50861111112O. Sokolowski2.50111148133WSep 11 · 09:25M. Baron2.10611471O. Sokolowski1.6711411113LSep 11 · 08:35O. Jadach1.441311113O. Sokolowski2.6311930WSep 11 · 07:20O. Sokolowski1.91911114113P. Slosarczyk1.8011991152LSep 11 · 06:05Z. Sobkow1.501111123O. Sokolowski2.5016100LSep 11 · 04:55J. Pelka1.671211113O. Sokolowski2.1010690LSep 11 · 03:25M. Baron1.8311711113O. Sokolowski1.83811661LAug 31 · 13:55K. Schaniel1.571110116113O. Sokolowski2.2591281182
Upcoming Matches
Z. Sobkow
Sep 12 · 03:25Z. Sobkow2.00K. Juszczyk1.73—Sep 12 · 04:55Z. Sobkow2.25A. Cichocki1.57—Sep 12 · 06:05Z. Sobkow1.36G. Sawicki3.00—Sep 12 · 07:20Z. Sobkow1.61M. Paszkiewicz2.20—Sep 12 · 08:35Z. Sobkow1.50P. Slosarczyk2.50—Sep 12 · 11:00Z. Sobkow2.25A. Cichocki1.57—Sep 12 · 12:15Z. Sobkow1.50P. Slosarczyk2.50—Sep 12 · 13:30Z. Sobkow1.61M. Paszkiewicz2.20—Sep 12 · 14:40Z. Sobkow1.91W. Urban1.80—
O. Sokolowski
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