TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114971
Played Sep 12Finished
Pawel Slosarczyk
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4111159111513611
Zbigniew Sobkow
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:47 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Sobkow to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Slosarczyk above · Zbigniew Sobkow below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 15-13
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 96 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Zbigniew Sobkow at 63.3%
96 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Slosarczyk 3–1 Zbigniew Sobkow Zbigniew Sobkow has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:47What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Sobkow
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Slosarczyk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slosarczyk 1334 vs Sobkow 1306
Slosarczyk
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slosarczyk 80% vs Sobkow 20%
Slosarczyk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slosarczyk 60% vs Sobkow 30%
Slosarczyk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Slosarczyk +1 · Sobkow -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Sobkow) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobkow form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlosarczyk 2.38 / Sobkow 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Sobkow)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13114971
Slosarczyk2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 111 of 338
Down 0–1, comes back14% 28 of 194
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 119
Sobkow1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 33 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it85% 17 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it70% 23 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSlosarczyk3wins
AwaySobkow1wins
3 of 4 to a deciderSlosarczyk leads 3–1, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slosarczyk2Sobkow2n = 4split evenly
S2Slosarczyk2Sobkow2n = 4split evenly
S3Slosarczyk2Sobkow2n = 4split evenly
S4Slosarczyk1Sobkow3n = 4Sobkow took 3 of 4
S5Slosarczyk3Sobkow0n = 3Slosarczyk took 3 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home375%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSlosarczykSobkowSlosarczyk − SobkowBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match47.544.5+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlosarczykSobkowBasisWin rate · lifetime324 / 837 vs 48 / 9438.7%51.1%324 / 837 vs 48 / 94Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobkowSlosarczyk 2.38/Sobkow 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Sobkow · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sobkow won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 11 · 09:00P. Slosarczyk—116129113Z. Sobkow—711101172
WSep 11 · 04:30P. Slosarczyk—1113611113Z. Sobkow—131111452
LSep 4 · 13:05P. Slosarczyk—1181481Z. Sobkow—51116113
WSep 4 · 06:55P. Slosarczyk—611119113Z. Sobkow—11591192
P. Slosarczyk10
WSep 12 · 06:55P. Slosarczyk1.2511511113G. Sawicki3.75711691LSep 12 · 05:40P. Slosarczyk5.5044100A. Cichocki1.131111123WSep 12 · 04:10P. Slosarczyk2.6391111113K. Juszczyk1.44117671WSep 12 · 03:00P. Slosarczyk2.251111123M. Paszkiewicz1.5745100WSep 11 · 14:20J. Pelka1.531731361P. Slosarczyk2.38191111113WSep 11 · 13:30O. Sokolowski1.918711111P. Slosarczyk1.8011116133LSep 11 · 11:25M. Baron1.6781115113P. Slosarczyk2.101181371LSep 11 · 10:35O. Jadach1.3311911113P. Slosarczyk3.25611491WSep 11 · 09:00Z. Sobkow1.50711101172P. Slosarczyk2.50116129113LSep 11 · 08:10J. Pelka1.53513119113P. Slosarczyk2.38111181182
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 12 · 07:20Z. Sobkow1.617111061M. Paszkiewicz2.2011712113WSep 12 · 06:05G. Sawicki3.00641181Z. Sobkow1.3611114113LSep 12 · 04:55A. Cichocki1.531741112113Z. Sobkow2.38151191422LSep 12 · 03:25K. Juszczyk1.7381111113Z. Sobkow2.00118881LSep 11 · 14:40Z. Sobkow1.33111291062O. Sokolowski3.258101112113LSep 11 · 13:05Z. Sobkow2.103770O. Jadach1.671111113LSep 11 · 11:50Z. Sobkow1.7391271192J. Pelka2.001110119113WSep 11 · 10:10Z. Sobkow1.67811114163M. Baron2.10118711142LSep 11 · 09:00Z. Sobkow1.50711101172P. Slosarczyk2.50116129113WSep 11 · 07:45M. Baron2.10108110Z. Sobkow1.671211133
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