Jerzy Pelka vs Pawel Slosarczyk 1-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110361

Played Sep 11Finished

Jerzy Pelka

Home

1.53

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 2

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

17193111311611––

Pawel Slosarczyk

Away

2.38

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:34 and never touched — 62.8% is still 62.8%

Graded at full time

Jerzy Pelka to win

62.8%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingJerzy Pelka above · Pawel Slosarczyk below

Set 1 · 17-19

Set 2 · 3-11

Set 3 · 13-11

Set 4 · 6-11

Point 91 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Jerzy Pelka at 62.8%

91 points played in total.

H2H Jerzy Pelka 5–2 Pawel Slosarczyk Pawel Slosarczyk has won 2 of their 7 meetings.

Last 7 · 5–2Same sideHead to head

Same-day rematch · 6h before this match

Pelka beat Slosarczyk 3-2.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 15:34

What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.53 (61%)

Pelka

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

5-2 in 7

Pelka

Wrong

gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Pelka 1415 vs Slosarczyk 1291

Pelka

Wrong

both rated, 125 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Pelka 80% vs Slosarczyk 40%

Pelka

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Pelka 70% vs Slosarczyk 50%

Pelka

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Pelka +2 · Slosarczyk +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Pelka)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Pelka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsPelka 1.53 / Slosarczyk 2.38

Signal prob.63% / 37%

Edge (Pelka)+2.0pp

TT Elite Series · #13110361

Pelka1.53

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Won last 2

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite49% won 96 of 195

Up 2–0, closes it88% 45 of 51

Up 1–0, closes it64% 67 of 105

Slosarczyk2.38

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

67%takes the first set · 6 of 9

As underdog32% won 108 of 335

Down 0–1, comes back15% 29 of 196

Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 120

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 7 meetings

HomePelka5wins

AwaySlosarczyk2wins

1 of 7 to a deciderPelka leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomePelka80%4 of 5

AwaySlosarczykn = 2, below the 3 needed

Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Pelka5Slosarczyk2n = 7Pelka took 5 of 7

S2Pelka6Slosarczyk1n = 7Pelka took 6 of 7

S3Pelka4Slosarczyk3n = 7Pelka took 4 of 7

S4Pelka1Slosarczyk3n = 4Slosarczyk took 3 of 4

Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home343%

3–1Four sets, home114%

3–2Decider, home114%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away229%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 7 meetings

MetricPelkaSlosarczykP − SBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match36.630.4+6.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricPelkaSlosarczykBasisWin rate · lifetime431 / 923 vs 320 / 83246.7%38.5%431 / 923 vs 320 / 832Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.135.3per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Pelka

Pelka 1.53/Slosarczyk 2.38

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

62.8%

Pelka · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Slosarczyk won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record7

WSep 11 · 08:10J. Pelka—513119113P. Slosarczyk—111181182

WJan 25 · 08:10J. Pelka—1111113P. Slosarczyk—4250

LNov 12 · 18:05J. Pelka—9125101P. Slosarczyk—111011123

WJul 22 · 11:55J. Pelka—1111113P. Slosarczyk—7760

WJul 22 · 05:55J. Pelka—1111113P. Slosarczyk—2790

LJul 1 · 15:30J. Pelka—116971P. Slosarczyk—91111113

WJul 1 · 09:30J. Pelka—11116113P. Slosarczyk—481161

J. Pelka10

WSep 11 · 12:40M. Baron1.73711111172J. Pelka2.00111376113 WSep 11 · 11:50Z. Sobkow1.7391271192J. Pelka2.001110119113 LSep 11 · 11:00J. Pelka1.50861111112O. Sokolowski2.50111148133 WSep 11 · 09:50J. Pelka2.7511611113O. Jadach1.40311891 WSep 11 · 08:10J. Pelka1.53513119113P. Slosarczyk2.38111181182 WSep 11 · 06:30M. Baron1.73912211102J. Pelka2.001110119123 WSep 11 · 05:40O. Jadach1.50612781J. Pelka2.50111011113 WSep 11 · 04:55J. Pelka1.671211113O. Sokolowski2.1010690 LSep 11 · 03:50J. Pelka2.201111911132Z. Sobkow1.61461113153 LSep 10 · 16:40J. Pelka1.8311191172K. Jablonski1.81119116113

P. Slosarczyk10

WSep 11 · 13:30O. Sokolowski1.918711111P. Slosarczyk1.8011116133 LSep 11 · 11:25M. Baron1.6781115113P. Slosarczyk2.101181371 LSep 11 · 10:35O. Jadach1.3311911113P. Slosarczyk3.25611491 WSep 11 · 09:00Z. Sobkow1.50711101172P. Slosarczyk2.50116129113 LSep 11 · 08:10J. Pelka1.53513119113P. Slosarczyk2.38111181182 LSep 11 · 07:20O. Sokolowski1.91911114113P. Slosarczyk1.8011991152 WSep 11 · 05:15M. Baron1.6769111142P. Slosarczyk2.10111189113 WSep 11 · 04:30Z. Sobkow1.50131111452P. Slosarczyk2.501113611113 WSep 11 · 03:00O. Jadach1.53116121062P. Slosarczyk2.389111012113 LSep 10 · 08:00J. Kaczmarek1.923P. Slosarczyk1.731

Upcoming Matches

J. Pelka

Nothing scheduled

P. Slosarczyk

Sep 12 · 03:00P. Slosarczyk2.25M. Paszkiewicz1.57—Sep 12 · 04:10P. Slosarczyk2.63K. Juszczyk1.44—Sep 12 · 05:40P. Slosarczyk5.50A. Cichocki1.13—Sep 12 · 06:55P. Slosarczyk1.67G. Sawicki2.10—Sep 12 · 08:35P. Slosarczyk2.50Z. Sobkow1.50—Sep 12 · 09:50P. Slosarczyk5.50A. Cichocki1.13—Sep 12 · 10:35P. Slosarczyk2.25M. Paszkiewicz1.57—Sep 12 · 12:15P. Slosarczyk2.50Z. Sobkow1.50—Sep 12 · 13:05P. Slosarczyk3.00W. Urban1.36—Sep 12 · 13:55P. Slosarczyk2.63K. Juszczyk1.44—

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