TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115214
Played Sep 12Finished
Zbigniew Sobkow
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117411119911811
Michal Paszkiewicz
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:34 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Sobkow to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZbigniew Sobkow above · Michal Paszkiewicz below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 92 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Zbigniew Sobkow at 57.7%
92 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Sobkow 4–1 Michal Paszkiewicz Michal Paszkiewicz has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Paszkiewicz beat Sobkow 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:34What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sobkow
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Sobkow
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobkow 1306 vs Paszkiewicz 1339
Paszkiewicz
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobkow 40% vs Paszkiewicz 60%
Paszkiewicz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobkow 30% vs Paszkiewicz 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobkow -1 · Paszkiewicz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Sobkow) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Paszkiewicz form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobkow 1.61 / Paszkiewicz 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Sobkow)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13115214
Sobkow1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 33 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it85% 17 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it70% 23 of 33
Paszkiewicz2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 78 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back19% 20 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSobkow4wins
AwayPaszkiewicz1wins
3 of 5 to a deciderSobkow leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobkow100%3 of 3
AwayPaszkiewiczn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobkow3Paszkiewicz2n = 5Sobkow took 3 of 5
S2Sobkow5Paszkiewicz0n = 5Sobkow took 5 of 5
S3Sobkow2Paszkiewicz3n = 5Paszkiewicz took 3 of 5
S4Sobkow0Paszkiewicz4n = 4Paszkiewicz took 4 of 4
S5Sobkow3Paszkiewicz0n = 3Sobkow took 3 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home360%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSobkowPaszkiewiczS − PBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match42.441.0+1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobkowPaszkiewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 98 vs 427 / 80451%53.1%50 / 98 vs 427 / 804Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobkowSobkow 1.61/Paszkiewicz 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Sobkow · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Paszkiewicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 12 · 07:20Z. Sobkow347111061M. Paszkiewicz4111712113
WAug 21 · 14:20Z. Sobkow52111496123M. Paszkiewicz539121111102
WAug 21 · 08:10Z. Sobkow44811113113M. Paszkiewicz4711881192
WJun 19 · 11:00Z. Sobkow49141176113M. Paszkiewicz48126111182
WJun 19 · 04:55Z. Sobkow331111113M. Paszkiewicz168620
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 12 · 12:15P. Slosarczyk2.0081111113Z. Sobkow1.73117391WSep 12 · 11:00A. Cichocki1.44510111382Z. Sobkow2.631112511113LSep 12 · 09:25K. Juszczyk1.9210111113123Z. Sobkow1.721261311102WSep 12 · 08:35P. Slosarczyk2.3841191562Z. Sobkow1.531151113113LSep 12 · 07:20Z. Sobkow1.617111061M. Paszkiewicz2.2011712113WSep 12 · 06:05G. Sawicki3.00641181Z. Sobkow1.3611114113LSep 12 · 04:55A. Cichocki1.531741112113Z. Sobkow2.38151191422LSep 12 · 03:25K. Juszczyk1.7381111113Z. Sobkow2.00118881LSep 11 · 14:40Z. Sobkow1.33111291062O. Sokolowski3.258101112113LSep 11 · 13:05Z. Sobkow2.103770O. Jadach1.671111113
M. Paszkiewicz10
LSep 12 · 14:20A. Cichocki1.3351111113M. Paszkiewicz3.25115991WSep 12 · 11:25K. Juszczyk1.44312931M. Paszkiewicz2.63111011113WSep 12 · 10:35P. Slosarczyk2.251114691M. Paszkiewicz1.57131211113LSep 12 · 09:00W. Urban1.8011611113M. Paszkiewicz1.91511991LSep 12 · 08:10A. Cichocki1.4011159113M. Paszkiewicz2.757131181WSep 12 · 07:20Z. Sobkow1.617111061M. Paszkiewicz2.2011712113LSep 12 · 05:15K. Juszczyk1.53111129113M. Paszkiewicz2.3899111192LSep 12 · 04:30G. Sawicki2.5011118113M. Paszkiewicz1.50971171LSep 12 · 03:00P. Slosarczyk2.251111123M. Paszkiewicz1.5745100LSep 9 · 08:20M. Adamus1.8811119113M. Paszkiewicz1.82971181
Upcoming Matches
Z. Sobkow
Sep 12 · 14:40Z. Sobkow1.91W. Urban1.80—Sep 13 · 03:00Z. Sobkow2.10J. Wieczerzak1.67—Sep 13 · 04:10Z. Sobkow2.75A. Cichocki1.40—Sep 13 · 05:40Z. Sobkow2.20M. Lach1.61—Sep 13 · 06:55Z. Sobkow2.25S. Szostok1.57—Sep 13 · 08:35Z. Sobkow2.10W. Wojtaszczyk1.67—Sep 13 · 09:50Z. Sobkow2.25M. Lach1.57—Sep 13 · 10:35Z. Sobkow2.10J. Wieczerzak1.67—Sep 13 · 12:15Z. Sobkow2.10W. Wojtaszczyk1.67—Sep 13 · 13:05Z. Sobkow2.20S. Szostok1.61—
M. Paszkiewicz
Nothing scheduled
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