TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114963
Played Sep 12Finished
Wojciech Urban
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115611119119––
Michal Paszkiewicz
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeWojciech Urban to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingWojciech Urban above · Michal Paszkiewicz below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 73 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Wojciech Urban at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Wojciech Urban 13–8 Michal Paszkiewicz Michal Paszkiewicz has won 8 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:47What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Urban
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-8 in 21
Urban
Correct
gap of 5 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urban 1437 vs Paszkiewicz 1313
Urban
Correct
both rated, 124 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urban 40% vs Paszkiewicz 20%
Urban
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urban 40% vs Paszkiewicz 20%
Urban
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Urban +2 · Paszkiewicz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Urban) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Paszkiewicz form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrban 1.80 / Paszkiewicz 1.91
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Urban)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13114963
Urban1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 174 of 303
Up 2–0, closes it96% 68 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it74% 122 of 166
Paszkiewicz1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog44% won 78 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back19% 20 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrban5wins
AwayPaszkiewicz5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrban57.1%4 of 7
AwayPaszkiewicz66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urban7Paszkiewicz3n = 10Urban took 7 of 10
S2Urban5Paszkiewicz5n = 10split evenly
S3Urban5Paszkiewicz5n = 10split evenly
S4Urban3Paszkiewicz3n = 6split evenly
S5Urban1Paszkiewicz2n = 3Paszkiewicz took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrbanPaszkiewiczU − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.534.4+2.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbanPaszkiewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime752 / 1592 vs 425 / 80147.2%53.1%752 / 1592 vs 425 / 801Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbanUrban 1.80/Paszkiewicz 1.91
Hit
What we said
54.7%
Urban · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 03:35W. Urban—7950M. Paszkiewicz—1111113
WSep 3 · 05:35W. Urban—1116113M. Paszkiewicz—61450
LSep 2 · 22:50W. Urban—115611112M. Paszkiewicz—611115133
LAug 23 · 19:55W. Urban—911115102M. Paszkiewicz—118811123
WAug 18 · 02:10W. Urban—1111113M. Paszkiewicz—4880
WAug 17 · 23:05W. Urban—61111123M. Paszkiewicz—1133101
LAug 5 · 03:35W. Urban—116261M. Paszkiewicz—71111113
WJul 3 · 07:10W. Urban—1161011113M. Paszkiewicz—91112982
WJun 5 · 08:20W. Urban—1111113M. Paszkiewicz—8130
LJun 3 · 05:35W. Urban—119791M. Paszkiewicz—91111113
W. Urban10
WSep 10 · 14:40L. Oracz1.738990W. Urban2.001111113WSep 10 · 13:30W. Urban2.63811811123K. Slawinski1.44117116102LSep 10 · 12:15P. Kurek1.731511113W. Urban2.0013960LSep 10 · 11:00M. Sikon2.001111113W. Urban1.735570LSep 10 · 09:25R. Idaczyk1.831111113W. Urban1.834970WSep 10 · 08:35P. Kurek1.80913891W. Urban1.91111111113LSep 10 · 07:20W. Urban2.63811461K. Slawinski1.4411611113LSep 10 · 06:10L. Oracz1.7312411113W. Urban2.001011891WSep 10 · 04:40M. Sikon3.25411741W. Urban1.3311711113LSep 10 · 03:20R. Idaczyk1.831111133W. Urban1.8356110
M. Paszkiewicz10
LSep 12 · 08:10A. Cichocki1.4011159113M. Paszkiewicz2.757131181WSep 12 · 07:20Z. Sobkow1.617111061M. Paszkiewicz2.2011712113LSep 12 · 05:15K. Juszczyk1.53111129113M. Paszkiewicz2.3899111192LSep 12 · 04:30G. Sawicki2.5011118113M. Paszkiewicz1.50971171LSep 12 · 03:00P. Slosarczyk2.251111123M. Paszkiewicz1.5745100LSep 9 · 08:20M. Adamus1.8811119113M. Paszkiewicz1.82971181LSep 9 · 07:35O. Sokolowski1.831111113M. Paszkiewicz1.837960WSep 9 · 05:35J. Kaczmarek2.103670M. Paszkiewicz1.601111113LSep 9 · 04:50M. Sikon2.00111110113M. Paszkiewicz1.71591261LSep 9 · 03:10M. Lebek1.4611129113M. Paszkiewicz2.506101161
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