TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13103646
Played Sep 10Finished
Wojciech Urban
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111178111161210
Kacper Slawinski
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:07 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeKacper Slawinski to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingWojciech Urban above · Kacper Slawinski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 95 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Kacper Slawinski at 65.3%
95 points played in total.
H2H Wojciech Urban 0–3 Kacper Slawinski Wojciech Urban has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Slawinski beat Urban 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:07What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Slawinski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Slawinski
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urban 1419 vs Slawinski 1509
Slawinski
Wrong
both rated, 90 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urban 20% vs Slawinski 80%
Slawinski
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urban 40% vs Slawinski 60%
Slawinski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Urban -3 · Slawinski +2
Urban
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Slawinski) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slawinski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrban 2.63 / Slawinski 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Slawinski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13103646
Urban2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 228 of 560
Down 0–1, comes back20% 60 of 308
Down 0–2, comes back6% 12 of 189
Slawinski1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite70% won 97 of 139
Up 2–0, closes it98% 46 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it82% 70 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeUrban0wins
AwaySlawinski3wins
Slawinski leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urban1Slawinski2n = 3Slawinski took 2 of 3
S2Urban1Slawinski2n = 3Slawinski took 2 of 3
S3Urban1Slawinski2n = 3Slawinski took 2 of 3
S4Urban0Slawinski3n = 3Slawinski took 3 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away3100%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricUrbanSlawinskiU − SBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match32.040.7−8.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbanSlawinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime750 / 1590 vs 616 / 99347.2%62%750 / 1590 vs 616 / 993Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SlawinskiUrban 2.63/Slawinski 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.3%
Slawinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 10 · 07:20W. Urban—811461K. Slawinski—11611113
LOct 15 · 17:30W. Urban—681171K. Slawinski—11118103
LSep 3 · 16:00W. Urban—129681K. Slawinski—101111113
W. Urban10
LSep 10 · 12:15P. Kurek1.731511113W. Urban2.0013960LSep 10 · 11:00M. Sikon2.001111113W. Urban1.735570LSep 10 · 09:25R. Idaczyk1.831111113W. Urban1.834970WSep 10 · 08:35P. Kurek1.80913891W. Urban1.91111111113LSep 10 · 07:20W. Urban2.63811461K. Slawinski1.4411611113LSep 10 · 06:10L. Oracz1.7312411113W. Urban2.001011891WSep 10 · 04:40M. Sikon3.25411741W. Urban1.3311711113LSep 10 · 03:20R. Idaczyk1.831111133W. Urban1.8356110WSep 9 · 16:40B. Madej2.7569100W. Urban1.361111123WSep 9 · 15:55K. Adamus1.67511881W. Urban2.1011511113
K. Slawinski10
WSep 10 · 11:25R. Idaczyk2.6312850K. Slawinski1.441411113WSep 10 · 10:35P. Kurek2.757590K. Slawinski1.401111113LSep 10 · 09:00L. Oracz2.101111153K. Slawinski1.6748130WSep 10 · 08:10M. Sikon3.75118951K. Slawinski1.2531111113WSep 10 · 07:20W. Urban2.63811461K. Slawinski1.4411611113LSep 10 · 05:30R. Idaczyk2.75611116133K. Slawinski1.40117911112LSep 10 · 04:20L. Oracz2.0012815113K. Slawinski1.7310111391WSep 10 · 03:00P. Kurek2.63861151K. Slawinski1.4411113113LSep 8 · 16:20K. Slawinski1.67111013151S. Szostok2.0041215173WSep 8 · 15:05K. Slawinski1.3611913113O. Vincenec2.755111181
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