TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13104890
Played Sep 10Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911911––––
Wojciech Urban
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:11 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Wojciech Urban below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-10
Point 58 set 3, 9-10 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 58.2%
58 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 16–8 Wojciech Urban Wojciech Urban has won 8 of their 24 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 9h before this match
Oracz beat Urban 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:11What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-8 in 24
Oracz
Wrong
gap of 8 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1562 vs Urban 1424
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 137 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 80% vs Urban 40%
Oracz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 70% vs Urban 40%
Oracz
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +4 · Urban +1
Oracz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Oracz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.73 / Urban 2.00
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Oracz)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13104890
Oracz1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 376 of 596
Up 2–0, closes it97% 202 of 209
Up 1–0, closes it83% 294 of 355
Urban2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 228 of 560
Down 0–1, comes back20% 60 of 308
Down 0–2, comes back6% 12 of 189
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz6wins
AwayUrban4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz80%4 of 5
AwayUrban60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz5Urban5n = 10split evenly
S2Oracz6Urban4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S3Oracz8Urban2n = 10Oracz took 8 of 10
S4Oracz3Urban3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczUrbanO − UBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.334.30.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczUrbanBasisWin rate · lifetime827 / 1484 vs 751 / 159055.7%47.2%827 / 1484 vs 751 / 1590Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.73/Urban 2.00
Miss
What we said
58.1%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 06:10L. Oracz—12411113W. Urban—1011891
WAug 17 · 23:50L. Oracz—1511133W. Urban—137110
LAug 17 · 17:55L. Oracz—11412932W. Urban—4111011113
LAug 16 · 23:55L. Oracz—4760W. Urban—1111113
WAug 16 · 17:55L. Oracz—1111123W. Urban—75100
LAug 5 · 05:10L. Oracz—511841W. Urban—11511113
WAug 3 · 05:05L. Oracz—1311113W. Urban—11870
WAug 2 · 20:45L. Oracz—91111113W. Urban—117981
LJul 28 · 09:00L. Oracz—5711101W. Urban—11118123
WJul 28 · 04:30L. Oracz—51111113W. Urban—115871
L. Oracz10
WSep 10 · 13:05L. Oracz1.5041111113P. Kurek2.50114391WSep 10 · 11:50L. Oracz1.301111113M. Sikon3.406890WSep 10 · 10:10L. Oracz1.53111176153R. Idaczyk2.38821111132WSep 10 · 09:00L. Oracz2.101111153K. Slawinski1.6748130LSep 10 · 07:45R. Idaczyk2.6311101011113L. Oracz1.4491212752LSep 10 · 06:55P. Kurek2.3861111113L. Oracz1.53116731WSep 10 · 06:10L. Oracz1.7312411113W. Urban2.001011891WSep 10 · 04:20L. Oracz2.0012815113K. Slawinski1.7310111391LSep 10 · 03:40M. Sikon3.5081211113L. Oracz1.281110891WSep 9 · 02:35L. Oracz1.671111123J. Nowak2.1058100
W. Urban10
WSep 10 · 13:30W. Urban2.63811811123K. Slawinski1.44117116102LSep 10 · 12:15P. Kurek1.731511113W. Urban2.0013960LSep 10 · 11:00M. Sikon2.001111113W. Urban1.735570LSep 10 · 09:25R. Idaczyk1.831111113W. Urban1.834970WSep 10 · 08:35P. Kurek1.80913891W. Urban1.91111111113LSep 10 · 07:20W. Urban2.63811461K. Slawinski1.4411611113LSep 10 · 06:10L. Oracz1.7312411113W. Urban2.001011891WSep 10 · 04:40M. Sikon3.25411741W. Urban1.3311711113LSep 10 · 03:20R. Idaczyk1.831111133W. Urban1.8356110WSep 9 · 16:40B. Madej2.7569100W. Urban1.361111123
Upcoming Matches
L. Oracz
W. Urban
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.