TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115060
Played Sep 12Finished
Pawel Slosarczyk
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811117113119––
Zbigniew Sobkow
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:54 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Sobkow to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPawel Slosarczyk above · Zbigniew Sobkow below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 71 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Zbigniew Sobkow at 63.3%
71 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Slosarczyk 3–1 Zbigniew Sobkow Zbigniew Sobkow has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:54What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sobkow
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Slosarczyk
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slosarczyk 1316 vs Sobkow 1332
Sobkow
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slosarczyk 40% vs Sobkow 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slosarczyk 50% vs Sobkow 30%
Slosarczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Slosarczyk -2 · Sobkow +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sobkow) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobkow form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlosarczyk 2.00 / Sobkow 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sobkow)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13115060
Slosarczyk2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 111 of 338
Down 0–1, comes back14% 28 of 194
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 119
Sobkow1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 33 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it85% 17 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it70% 23 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSlosarczyk3wins
AwaySobkow1wins
3 of 4 to a deciderSlosarczyk leads 3–1, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slosarczyk2Sobkow2n = 4split evenly
S2Slosarczyk2Sobkow2n = 4split evenly
S3Slosarczyk2Sobkow2n = 4split evenly
S4Slosarczyk1Sobkow3n = 4Sobkow took 3 of 4
S5Slosarczyk3Sobkow0n = 3Slosarczyk took 3 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home375%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSlosarczykSobkowSlosarczyk − SobkowBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match47.544.5+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlosarczykSobkowBasisWin rate · lifetime324 / 839 vs 49 / 9638.6%51%324 / 839 vs 49 / 96Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobkowSlosarczyk 2.00/Sobkow 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sobkow · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Slosarczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 11 · 09:00P. Slosarczyk49116129113Z. Sobkow46711101172
WSep 11 · 04:30P. Slosarczyk521113611113Z. Sobkow44131111452
LSep 4 · 13:05P. Slosarczyk411181481Z. Sobkow4351116113
WSep 4 · 06:55P. Slosarczyk48611119113Z. Sobkow4511591192
P. Slosarczyk10
LSep 12 · 13:55K. Juszczyk1.4411115113P. Slosarczyk2.63891191LSep 12 · 13:05W. Urban1.361111113P. Slosarczyk3.007670LSep 12 · 10:35P. Slosarczyk2.251114691M. Paszkiewicz1.57131211113LSep 12 · 09:50A. Cichocki1.131311113P. Slosarczyk5.5011890LSep 12 · 08:35P. Slosarczyk2.3841191562Z. Sobkow1.531151113113WSep 12 · 06:55P. Slosarczyk1.2511511113G. Sawicki3.75711691LSep 12 · 05:40P. Slosarczyk5.5044100A. Cichocki1.131111123WSep 12 · 04:10P. Slosarczyk2.6391111113K. Juszczyk1.44117671WSep 12 · 03:00P. Slosarczyk2.251111123M. Paszkiewicz1.5745100WSep 11 · 14:20J. Pelka1.531731361P. Slosarczyk2.38191111113
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 12 · 13:30Z. Sobkow1.6111411982M. Paszkiewicz2.20711911113WSep 12 · 11:00A. Cichocki1.44510111382Z. Sobkow2.631112511113LSep 12 · 09:25K. Juszczyk1.9210111113123Z. Sobkow1.721261311102WSep 12 · 08:35P. Slosarczyk2.3841191562Z. Sobkow1.531151113113LSep 12 · 07:20Z. Sobkow1.617111061M. Paszkiewicz2.2011712113WSep 12 · 06:05G. Sawicki3.00641181Z. Sobkow1.3611114113LSep 12 · 04:55A. Cichocki1.531741112113Z. Sobkow2.38151191422LSep 12 · 03:25K. Juszczyk1.7381111113Z. Sobkow2.00118881LSep 11 · 14:40Z. Sobkow1.33111291062O. Sokolowski3.258101112113LSep 11 · 13:05Z. Sobkow2.103770O. Jadach1.671111113
Upcoming Matches
P. Slosarczyk
Nothing scheduled
Z. Sobkow
Sep 12 · 14:40Z. Sobkow1.91W. Urban1.80—Sep 13 · 03:00Z. Sobkow2.10J. Wieczerzak1.67—Sep 13 · 04:10Z. Sobkow2.75A. Cichocki1.40—Sep 13 · 05:40Z. Sobkow2.20M. Lach1.61—Sep 13 · 06:55Z. Sobkow2.25S. Szostok1.57—Sep 13 · 08:35Z. Sobkow2.10W. Wojtaszczyk1.67—Sep 13 · 09:50Z. Sobkow2.20M. Lach1.61—Sep 13 · 10:35Z. Sobkow2.10J. Wieczerzak1.67—Sep 13 · 12:15Z. Sobkow2.10W. Wojtaszczyk1.67—Sep 13 · 13:05Z. Sobkow2.25S. Szostok1.57—
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