TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13118496
Played Sep 12Finished
Aleksander Cichocki
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511115119119––
Michal Paszkiewicz
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:33 and never touched — 69.4% is still 69.4%
Graded at full timeAleksander Cichocki to win
69.4%
69.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAleksander Cichocki above · Michal Paszkiewicz below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-6
Point 63 set 4, 5-6 — our read held Aleksander Cichocki at 69.4%
63 points drawn · the score is 9 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Aleksander Cichocki 1–0 Michal Paszkiewicz Michal Paszkiewicz has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Cichocki beat Paszkiewicz 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:33What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Cichocki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Cichocki 1512 vs Paszkiewicz 1360
Cichocki
Correct
both rated, 153 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cichocki 60% vs Paszkiewicz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cichocki 80% vs Paszkiewicz 40%
Cichocki
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cichocki -1 · Paszkiewicz +3
Paszkiewicz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Cichocki) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Paszkiewicz form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCichocki 1.33 / Paszkiewicz 3.25
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Cichocki)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13118496
Cichocki1.33
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite70% won 78 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it91% 60 of 66
Paszkiewicz3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 78 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back19% 20 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeCichocki1wins
AwayPaszkiewicz0wins
Cichocki leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricCichockiPaszkiewiczC − PBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match46.039.0+7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCichockiPaszkiewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 181 vs 428 / 80563%53.2%114 / 181 vs 428 / 805Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CichockiCichocki 1.33/Paszkiewicz 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.7%
Cichocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cichocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 12 · 08:10A. Cichocki4611159113M. Paszkiewicz397131181
A. Cichocki10
LSep 12 · 12:40K. Juszczyk2.501111411113A. Cichocki1.5091311882WSep 12 · 11:50W. Urban2.75811811102A. Cichocki1.40119118123LSep 12 · 11:00A. Cichocki1.44510111382Z. Sobkow2.631112511113WSep 12 · 09:50A. Cichocki1.131311113P. Slosarczyk5.5011890WSep 12 · 08:10A. Cichocki1.4011159113M. Paszkiewicz2.757131181WSep 12 · 06:30K. Juszczyk2.20119111082A. Cichocki1.61511812113WSep 12 · 05:40P. Slosarczyk5.5044100A. Cichocki1.131111123WSep 12 · 04:55A. Cichocki1.531741112113Z. Sobkow2.38151191422WSep 12 · 03:50A. Cichocki1.2511911113G. Sawicki3.75711981WAug 30 · 13:55A. Cichocki1.141211113P. Slosarczyk5.0010790
M. Paszkiewicz10
WSep 12 · 13:30Z. Sobkow1.6111411982M. Paszkiewicz2.20711911113WSep 12 · 11:25K. Juszczyk1.44312931M. Paszkiewicz2.63111011113WSep 12 · 10:35P. Slosarczyk2.251114691M. Paszkiewicz1.57131211113LSep 12 · 09:00W. Urban1.8011611113M. Paszkiewicz1.91511991LSep 12 · 08:10A. Cichocki1.4011159113M. Paszkiewicz2.757131181WSep 12 · 07:20Z. Sobkow1.617111061M. Paszkiewicz2.2011712113LSep 12 · 05:15K. Juszczyk1.53111129113M. Paszkiewicz2.3899111192LSep 12 · 04:30G. Sawicki2.5011118113M. Paszkiewicz1.50971171LSep 12 · 03:00P. Slosarczyk2.251111123M. Paszkiewicz1.5745100LSep 9 · 08:20M. Adamus1.8811119113M. Paszkiewicz1.82971181
Upcoming Matches
A. Cichocki
Sep 13 · 03:25A. Cichocki1.57W. Wojtaszczyk2.25—Sep 13 · 04:10A. Cichocki1.40Z. Sobkow2.75—Sep 13 · 05:15A. Cichocki1.61J. Wieczerzak2.20—Sep 13 · 06:30A. Cichocki1.57M. Lach2.25—Sep 13 · 07:45A. Cichocki1.53S. Szostok2.38—Sep 13 · 09:25A. Cichocki1.57W. Wojtaszczyk2.25—Sep 13 · 10:10A. Cichocki1.53S. Szostok2.38—Sep 13 · 11:25A. Cichocki1.61J. Wieczerzak2.20—
M. Paszkiewicz
Nothing scheduled
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