TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120047
Played Sep 13Finished
Zbigniew Sobkow
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1197117111113––
Marcin Lach
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:24 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeMarcin Lach to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbigniew Sobkow above · Marcin Lach below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 80 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Marcin Lach at 58.5%
80 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Sobkow 0–2 Marcin Lach Zbigniew Sobkow has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:24What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lach
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sobkow 1247 vs Lach 1434
Lach
Correct
both rated, 188 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobkow 0% vs Lach 60%
Lach
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobkow 30% vs Lach 60%
Lach
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobkow -5 · Lach -1
Sobkow
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Lach) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobkow form (0%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobkow 2.38 / Lach 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Lach)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13120047
Sobkow2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 10 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Lach1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 116 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it99% 66 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it81% 85 of 105
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSobkow0wins
AwayLach2wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLach leads 2–0, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away2
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSobkowLachS − LBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match43.044.0−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobkowLachBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 102 vs 142 / 22849%62.3%50 / 102 vs 142 / 228Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LachSobkow 2.38/Lach 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Lach · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 22 · 11:25Z. Sobkow3811171182M. Lach41117111113
LAug 22 · 05:15Z. Sobkow48611119112M. Lach47118411133
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 13 · 04:10Z. Sobkow2.7511611952A. Cichocki1.40511311113LSep 13 · 03:00Z. Sobkow2.1010870J. Wieczerzak1.671211113LSep 12 · 14:40W. Urban1.801112117113Z. Sobkow1.9161461182LSep 12 · 13:30Z. Sobkow1.6111411982M. Paszkiewicz2.20711911113LSep 12 · 12:15P. Slosarczyk2.0081111113Z. Sobkow1.73117391WSep 12 · 11:00A. Cichocki1.44510111382Z. Sobkow2.631112511113LSep 12 · 09:25K. Juszczyk1.9210111113123Z. Sobkow1.721261311102WSep 12 · 08:35P. Slosarczyk2.3841191562Z. Sobkow1.531151113113LSep 12 · 07:20Z. Sobkow1.617111061M. Paszkiewicz2.2011712113WSep 12 · 06:05G. Sawicki3.00641181Z. Sobkow1.3611114113
M. Lach10
LSep 13 · 06:30A. Cichocki1.571711113M. Lach2.2515740LSep 13 · 04:55M. Lach2.108690W. Wojtaszczyk1.671111113WSep 13 · 03:50M. Lach2.10111166143S. Szostok1.67771111122LSep 12 · 17:05M. Lach1.859980W. Wojtaszczyk1.801111113WSep 12 · 15:30M. Lach1.7012619113D. Morawiec1.9610111791WSep 12 · 14:20M. Lach1.761111113J. Wieczerzak1.908990WSep 12 · 12:45M. Lach1.8311115113M. Oracz1.81991161WSep 12 · 11:30M. Lach1.831111113F. Witczak1.836970LSep 12 · 10:20M. Oracz1.861111153M. Lach1.8073130WSep 12 · 09:30D. Morawiec2.02611621M. Lach1.6511611113
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