TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119790
Played Sep 13Finished
Zbigniew Sobkow
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115611113911511
Aleksander Cichocki
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:23 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeAleksander Cichocki to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbigniew Sobkow above · Aleksander Cichocki below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 83 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Aleksander Cichocki at 67.3%
83 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Sobkow 3–3 Aleksander Cichocki Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
Same-day rematch · 17h before this match
Sobkow beat Cichocki 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:23What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Cichocki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobkow 1250 vs Cichocki 1550
Cichocki
Correct
both rated, 299 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobkow 20% vs Cichocki 60%
Cichocki
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobkow 30% vs Cichocki 80%
Cichocki
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobkow -4 · Cichocki +2
Sobkow
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Cichocki) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cichocki form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobkow 2.75 / Cichocki 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Cichocki)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13119790
Sobkow2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 10 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Cichocki1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 82 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it91% 63 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSobkow3wins
AwayCichocki3wins
5 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 5 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobkow100%3 of 3
AwayCichocki100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobkow3Cichocki3n = 6split evenly
S2Sobkow5Cichocki1n = 6Sobkow took 5 of 6
S3Sobkow2Cichocki4n = 6Cichocki took 4 of 6
S4Sobkow3Cichocki2n = 5Sobkow took 3 of 5
S5Sobkow2Cichocki3n = 5Cichocki took 3 of 5
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away350%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricSobkowCichockiS − CBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match44.845.2−0.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobkowCichockiBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 101 vs 116 / 18349.5%63.4%50 / 101 vs 116 / 183Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CichockiSobkow 2.75/Cichocki 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Cichocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cichocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 12 · 11:00Z. Sobkow501112511113A. Cichocki47510111382
LSep 12 · 04:55Z. Sobkow51151191422A. Cichocki551741112113
LAug 23 · 10:35Z. Sobkow3861241152A. Cichocki501110117113
WAug 23 · 03:00Z. Sobkow331111113A. Cichocki187560
WAug 22 · 09:00Z. Sobkow47117711113A. Cichocki4881111992
LAug 22 · 04:30Z. Sobkow501111117102A. Cichocki53138911123
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 13 · 03:00Z. Sobkow2.1010870J. Wieczerzak1.671211113LSep 12 · 14:40W. Urban1.801112117113Z. Sobkow1.9161461182LSep 12 · 13:30Z. Sobkow1.6111411982M. Paszkiewicz2.20711911113LSep 12 · 12:15P. Slosarczyk2.0081111113Z. Sobkow1.73117391WSep 12 · 11:00A. Cichocki1.44510111382Z. Sobkow2.631112511113LSep 12 · 09:25K. Juszczyk1.9210111113123Z. Sobkow1.721261311102WSep 12 · 08:35P. Slosarczyk2.3841191562Z. Sobkow1.531151113113LSep 12 · 07:20Z. Sobkow1.617111061M. Paszkiewicz2.2011712113WSep 12 · 06:05G. Sawicki3.00641181Z. Sobkow1.3611114113LSep 12 · 04:55A. Cichocki1.531741112113Z. Sobkow2.38151191422
A. Cichocki10
WSep 13 · 03:25A. Cichocki1.57101111113W. Wojtaszczyk2.25123541WSep 12 · 14:20A. Cichocki1.3351111113M. Paszkiewicz3.25115991LSep 12 · 12:40K. Juszczyk2.501111411113A. Cichocki1.5091311882WSep 12 · 11:50W. Urban2.75811811102A. Cichocki1.40119118123LSep 12 · 11:00A. Cichocki1.44510111382Z. Sobkow2.631112511113WSep 12 · 09:50A. Cichocki1.131311113P. Slosarczyk5.5011890WSep 12 · 08:10A. Cichocki1.4011159113M. Paszkiewicz2.757131181WSep 12 · 06:30K. Juszczyk2.20119111082A. Cichocki1.61511812113WSep 12 · 05:40P. Slosarczyk5.5044100A. Cichocki1.131111123WSep 12 · 04:55A. Cichocki1.531741112113Z. Sobkow2.38151191422
Upcoming Matches
Z. Sobkow
Sep 13 · 05:40Z. Sobkow2.25M. Lach1.57—Sep 13 · 06:55Z. Sobkow2.38S. Szostok1.53—Sep 13 · 08:35Z. Sobkow2.25W. Wojtaszczyk1.57—Sep 13 · 09:50Z. Sobkow2.25M. Lach1.57—Sep 13 · 10:35Z. Sobkow2.10J. Wieczerzak1.67—Sep 13 · 12:15Z. Sobkow2.25W. Wojtaszczyk1.57—Sep 13 · 13:05Z. Sobkow2.38S. Szostok1.53—Sep 13 · 13:55Z. Sobkow2.75A. Cichocki1.40—
A. Cichocki
Sep 13 · 05:15A. Cichocki1.67J. Wieczerzak2.10—Sep 13 · 06:30A. Cichocki1.57M. Lach2.25—Sep 13 · 07:45A. Cichocki1.53S. Szostok2.38—Sep 13 · 09:25A. Cichocki1.44W. Wojtaszczyk2.63—Sep 13 · 10:10A. Cichocki1.53S. Szostok2.38—Sep 13 · 11:25A. Cichocki1.61J. Wieczerzak2.20—Sep 13 · 12:40A. Cichocki1.57M. Lach2.25—Sep 13 · 13:55A. Cichocki1.40Z. Sobkow2.75—
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