TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119870
Played Sep 13Finished
Marcin Lach
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141171210––––
Zbigniew Sobkow
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:44 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeMarcin Lach to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Lach above · Zbigniew Sobkow below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 55 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Marcin Lach at 58.5%
55 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Lach 4–1 Zbigniew Sobkow Zbigniew Sobkow has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:44What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Lach
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Lach
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lach 1421 vs Sobkow 1248
Lach
Correct
both rated, 173 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lach 40% vs Sobkow 20%
Lach
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lach 60% vs Sobkow 20%
Lach
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lach -2 · Sobkow -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Lach) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobkow form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLach 1.44 / Sobkow 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Lach)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13119870
Lach1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 116 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it99% 66 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it81% 85 of 105
Sobkow2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 10 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeLach4wins
AwaySobkow1wins
3 of 5 to a deciderLach leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLach100%3 of 3
AwaySobkown = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lach3Sobkow2n = 5Lach took 3 of 5
S2Lach2Sobkow3n = 5Sobkow took 3 of 5
S3Lach2Sobkow3n = 5Sobkow took 3 of 5
S4Lach2Sobkow2n = 4split evenly
S5Lach3Sobkow0n = 3Lach took 3 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home360%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricLachSobkowL − SBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match40.639.4+1.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLachSobkowBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 231 vs 51 / 10561.9%48.6%143 / 231 vs 51 / 105Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LachLach 1.44/Sobkow 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.9%
Lach · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 13 · 05:40M. Lach4491111133Z. Sobkow361177111
LAug 23 · 11:25M. Lach218940Z. Sobkow331111113
WAug 23 · 05:15M. Lach50111369113Z. Sobkow42511111142
WAug 22 · 11:25M. Lach41117111113Z. Sobkow3811171182
WAug 22 · 05:15M. Lach47118411133Z. Sobkow48611119112
M. Lach10
LSep 13 · 08:10M. Lach1.911110691J. Wieczerzak1.8081211113LSep 13 · 06:30A. Cichocki1.571711113M. Lach2.2515740WSep 13 · 05:40Z. Sobkow2.381177111M. Lach1.5391111133LSep 13 · 04:55M. Lach2.108690W. Wojtaszczyk1.671111113WSep 13 · 03:50M. Lach2.10111166143S. Szostok1.67771111122LSep 12 · 17:05M. Lach1.859980W. Wojtaszczyk1.801111113WSep 12 · 15:30M. Lach1.7012619113D. Morawiec1.9610111791WSep 12 · 14:20M. Lach1.761111113J. Wieczerzak1.908990WSep 12 · 12:45M. Lach1.8311115113M. Oracz1.81991161WSep 12 · 11:30M. Lach1.831111113F. Witczak1.836970
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 13 · 08:35Z. Sobkow2.25128981W. Wojtaszczyk1.57101111113WSep 13 · 06:55Z. Sobkow2.3891111113S. Szostok1.53116751LSep 13 · 05:40Z. Sobkow2.381177111M. Lach1.5391111133LSep 13 · 04:10Z. Sobkow2.7511611952A. Cichocki1.40511311113LSep 13 · 03:00Z. Sobkow2.1010870J. Wieczerzak1.671211113LSep 12 · 14:40W. Urban1.801112117113Z. Sobkow1.9161461182LSep 12 · 13:30Z. Sobkow1.6111411982M. Paszkiewicz2.20711911113LSep 12 · 12:15P. Slosarczyk2.0081111113Z. Sobkow1.73117391WSep 12 · 11:00A. Cichocki1.44510111382Z. Sobkow2.631112511113LSep 12 · 09:25K. Juszczyk1.9210111113123Z. Sobkow1.721261311102
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