TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13123136
Played Sep 13Finished
Aleksander Cichocki
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
10121412114115––
Marcin Lach
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAleksander Cichocki to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAleksander Cichocki above · Marcin Lach below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 79 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Aleksander Cichocki at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Aleksander Cichocki 9–6 Marcin Lach Marcin Lach has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Cichocki beat Lach 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:54What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Cichocki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-6 in 15
Cichocki
Correct
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cichocki 1558 vs Lach 1389
Cichocki
Correct
both rated, 169 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cichocki 60% vs Lach 20%
Cichocki
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cichocki 70% vs Lach 40%
Cichocki
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cichocki +1 · Lach -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Cichocki) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lach form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCichocki 1.50 / Lach 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Cichocki)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13123136
Cichocki1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 84 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it91% 63 of 69
Lach2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 18 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCichocki6wins
AwayLach4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCichocki leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCichocki100%6 of 6
AwayLach100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cichocki6Lach4n = 10Cichocki took 6 of 10
S2Cichocki7Lach3n = 10Cichocki took 7 of 10
S3Cichocki4Lach6n = 10Lach took 6 of 10
S4Cichocki2Lach3n = 5Lach took 3 of 5
S5Cichocki2Lach1n = 3Cichocki took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricCichockiLachC − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.836.80.0per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCichockiLachBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 190 vs 144 / 23463.7%61.5%121 / 190 vs 144 / 234Avg sets wonper match2.32.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CichockiCichocki 1.50/Lach 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Cichocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cichocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 06:30A. Cichocki391711113M. Lach2615740
LAug 30 · 12:40A. Cichocki3551151132M. Lach48118117113
WAug 30 · 06:30A. Cichocki331111113M. Lach269980
LAug 29 · 11:50A. Cichocki337124101M. Lach44111011123
WAug 29 · 03:50A. Cichocki341111123M. Lach2697100
LAug 23 · 13:55A. Cichocki218670M. Lach331111113
LAug 23 · 04:10A. Cichocki2310940M. Lach341211113
WAug 22 · 10:10A. Cichocki561111814123M. Lach51861116102
WAug 22 · 07:45A. Cichocki4411912123M. Lach3761110101
WAug 10 · 12:40A. Cichocki50111189113M. Lach4376111182
A. Cichocki10
WSep 13 · 11:25A. Cichocki1.611112113J. Wieczerzak2.2061080LSep 13 · 10:10S. Szostok2.50111111113A. Cichocki1.50136941LSep 13 · 09:25A. Cichocki1.40741191W. Wojtaszczyk2.7511119113WSep 13 · 07:45A. Cichocki1.501111113S. Szostok2.507880WSep 13 · 06:30A. Cichocki1.571711113M. Lach2.2515740WSep 13 · 05:15A. Cichocki1.671512116113J. Wieczerzak2.10171091182WSep 13 · 04:10Z. Sobkow2.7511611952A. Cichocki1.40511311113WSep 13 · 03:25A. Cichocki1.57101111113W. Wojtaszczyk2.25123541WSep 12 · 14:20A. Cichocki1.3351111113M. Paszkiewicz3.25115991LSep 12 · 12:40K. Juszczyk2.501111411113A. Cichocki1.5091311882
M. Lach10
LSep 13 · 11:50S. Szostok1.80816117113M. Lach1.91111471182LSep 13 · 11:00M. Lach2.00761191W. Wojtaszczyk1.7311115113WSep 13 · 09:50M. Lach1.441111123Z. Sobkow2.6347100LSep 13 · 08:10M. Lach1.911110691J. Wieczerzak1.8081211113LSep 13 · 06:30A. Cichocki1.571711113M. Lach2.2515740WSep 13 · 05:40Z. Sobkow2.381177111M. Lach1.5391111133LSep 13 · 04:55M. Lach2.108690W. Wojtaszczyk1.671111113WSep 13 · 03:50M. Lach2.10111166143S. Szostok1.67771111122LSep 12 · 17:05M. Lach1.859980W. Wojtaszczyk1.801111113WSep 12 · 15:30M. Lach1.7012619113D. Morawiec1.9610111791
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