TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130203
Played Sep 15Finished
Oskar Jadach
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12101012311114115
Sebastian Szostok
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOskar Jadach to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
12101012311114115
H2H Oskar Jadach 27–38 Sebastian Szostok Oskar Jadach has won 27 of their 65 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Szostok beat Jadach 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:34What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (50%)
Szostok
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-38 in 65
Szostok
Wrong
gap of 11 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadach 1505 vs Szostok 1524
Szostok
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadach 40% vs Szostok 80%
Szostok
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadach 60% vs Szostok 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadach +1 · Szostok +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Szostok) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostok form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadach 1.80 / Szostok 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Szostok)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13130203
Jadach1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Szostok1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadach4wins
AwaySzostok6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadach33.3%1 of 3
AwaySzostok57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadach3Szostok7n = 10Szostok took 7 of 10
S2Jadach5Szostok5n = 10split evenly
S3Jadach6Szostok4n = 10Jadach took 6 of 10
S4Jadach3Szostok5n = 8Szostok took 5 of 8
S5Jadach2Szostok2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadachSzostokJ − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.640.9−1.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadachSzostokBasisWin rate · lifetime800 / 1319 vs 924 / 157560.7%58.7%800 / 1319 vs 924 / 1575Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.840.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokJadach 1.80/Szostok 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jadach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 23:05O. Jadach45111211562S. Szostok51914611113
LSep 4 · 13:10O. Jadach36881191S. Szostok3811115113
LSep 4 · 05:30O. Jadach351312551S. Szostok47151011113
WSep 2 · 02:10O. Jadach521091111113S. Szostok4412115882
WSep 1 · 20:05O. Jadach49511911133S. Szostok45115117112
WAug 28 · 13:05O. Jadach351112123S. Szostok26610100
LAug 28 · 06:55O. Jadach2879120S. Szostok361111143
LAug 20 · 12:20O. Jadach32571191S. Szostok4211119113
WAug 20 · 08:20O. Jadach3961111113S. Szostok31115781
LJul 26 · 15:55O. Jadach45111167102S. Szostok49691111123
O. Jadach10
WSep 15 · 24:50O. Jadach1.5712211113G. Marud2.161011701LSep 15 · 24:10I. Szymanski4.60613914113O. Jadach1.131111111272LSep 14 · 23:05O. Jadach1.81111211562S. Szostok1.83914611113LSep 14 · 21:30O. Jadach1.85791111142K. Adamus1.85111197163WSep 14 · 20:20O. Jadach1.151111113I. Szymanski4.407620WSep 14 · 18:45O. Jadach1.501111133K. Schaniel2.3095110LSep 14 · 17:30O. Jadach1.5721190G. Marud2.151113113WSep 14 · 04:20M. Adamus2.30711771O. Jadach1.5511711113WSep 14 · 03:30A. Ruszkiewicz1.6811971222O. Jadach2.078111110113WSep 14 · 02:45O. Jadach1.331111113J. Nowak2.857940
S. Szostok10
WSep 15 · 01:10I. Szymanski4.0112791152S. Szostok1.211011118113LSep 14 · 23:50K. Schaniel2.0911118113S. Szostok1.67681191WSep 14 · 23:05O. Jadach1.81111211562S. Szostok1.83914611113WSep 14 · 21:55S. Szostok1.58511811113G. Marud2.1411811642WSep 14 · 20:45K. Adamus2.0011581182S. Szostok1.71911118113LSep 14 · 19:30I. Szymanski4.551111710113S. Szostok1.1469111282WSep 14 · 17:55K. Schaniel2.35118101172S. Szostok1.48411125113WSep 13 · 14:40S. Szostok2.001111113W. Wojtaszczyk1.736860LSep 13 · 13:05S. Szostok1.44117118192Z. Sobkow2.63611311213WSep 13 · 11:50S. Szostok1.80816117113M. Lach1.91111471182
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