TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125244
Played Sep 14Finished
Oskar Jadach
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117119114––––
Jakub Nowak
Away
2.85
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:05 and never touched — 65.4% is still 65.4%
Graded at full timeOskar Jadach to win
65.4%
65.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
53 points played in total.
Set by set
117119114––––
H2H Oskar Jadach 20–7 Jakub Nowak Jakub Nowak has won 7 of their 27 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Jadach beat Nowak 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:05What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (68%)
Jadach
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-7 in 27
Jadach
Correct
gap of 13 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadach 1501 vs Nowak 1236
Jadach
Correct
both rated, 264 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadach 100% vs Nowak 20%
Jadach
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadach 80% vs Nowak 20%
Jadach
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadach +5 · Nowak -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Jadach) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (20%) is below what odds imply (35%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadach 1.33 / Nowak 2.85
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Jadach)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13125244
Jadach1.33
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite68% won 313 of 464
Up 2–0, closes it94% 145 of 154
Up 1–0, closes it85% 216 of 253
Nowak2.85
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 231 of 650
Down 0–1, comes back21% 83 of 392
Down 0–2, comes back9% 20 of 232
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadach8wins
AwayNowak2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJadach leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadach100%7 of 7
AwayNowak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadach7Nowak3n = 10Jadach took 7 of 10
S2Jadach6Nowak4n = 10Jadach took 6 of 10
S3Jadach5Nowak5n = 10split evenly
S4Jadach5Nowak2n = 7Jadach took 5 of 7
S5Jadach3Nowak1n = 4Jadach took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadachNowakJ − NBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.135.7+5.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadachNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime800 / 1315 vs 671 / 173960.8%38.6%800 / 1315 vs 671 / 1739Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadachJadach 1.33/Nowak 2.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.6%
Jadach · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jadach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 23:05O. Jadach47115911113J. Nowak4381111852
LSep 8 · 24:30O. Jadach2911990J. Nowak351311113
WSep 7 · 22:20O. Jadach331111113J. Nowak153660
LAug 24 · 14:45O. Jadach4385111182J. Nowak43111146113
WAug 24 · 11:05O. Jadach3911116113J. Nowak31581171
WJul 12 · 15:55O. Jadach361411113J. Nowak2412570
WJul 12 · 09:55O. Jadach53811149113J. Nowak50119121172
WFeb 17 · 04:05O. Jadach44111174113J. Nowak4496111172
WFeb 16 · 22:05O. Jadach4611139133J. Nowak4071111111
WDec 30 · 04:05O. Jadach4111611133J. Nowak328112111
O. Jadach10
WSep 14 · 01:10O. Jadach1.481314113O. Vincenec2.49111260WSep 14 · 24:20G. Marud2.179137111O. Jadach1.56111111133WSep 13 · 23:05O. Jadach1.33115911113J. Nowak2.8581111852WSep 13 · 21:30O. Jadach1.331211113A. Ruszkiewicz2.8510260WSep 13 · 20:20O. Jadach1.601111113G. Marud2.105970LSep 13 · 18:45O. Jadach1.468780M. Adamus2.401111113WSep 13 · 17:30O. Jadach1.451171111113O. Vincenec2.4541113962WSep 11 · 13:55M. Baron2.381211111062O. Jadach1.53147912113WSep 11 · 13:05Z. Sobkow2.103770O. Jadach1.671111113LSep 11 · 12:15O. Jadach1.28871191O. Sokolowski3.5011117113
J. Nowak10
LSep 14 · 01:30G. Marud1.471111113J. Nowak2.373940LSep 13 · 23:55M. Adamus1.8581111123J. Nowak1.801178101LSep 13 · 23:05O. Jadach1.33115911113J. Nowak2.8581111852WSep 13 · 21:55J. Nowak2.0011411153O. Vincenec1.707115131LSep 13 · 20:45A. Ruszkiewicz1.861111113J. Nowak1.835690LSep 13 · 19:30G. Marud1.50119117113J. Nowak2.4061181162LSep 13 · 17:55M. Adamus1.659101113113J. Nowak2.10111241172LSep 11 · 08:45Y. Fomin1.601111113J. Nowak2.155480LSep 11 · 07:35J. Nowak1.70136661R. Komandzik2.00111111113WSep 11 · 06:25M. Lebek1.37111181082J. Nowak2.70691112113
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