TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110995
Played Sep 11Finished
Marian Lebek
Home
1.37
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1161198111012811
Jakub Nowak
Away
2.70
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:56 and never touched — 58.8% is still 58.8%
Graded at full timeMarian Lebek to win
58.8%
58.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
97 points played in total.
Set by set
1161198111012811
H2H Marian Lebek 51–32 Jakub Nowak Jakub Nowak has won 32 of their 83 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:56What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.37 (66%)
Lebek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
51-32 in 83
Lebek
Wrong
gap of 19 in 83, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lebek 1369 vs Nowak 1302
Lebek
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lebek 40% vs Nowak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lebek 40% vs Nowak 20%
Lebek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lebek -1 · Nowak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Lebek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lebek form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLebek 1.37 / Nowak 2.70
Signal prob.68% / 33%
Edge (Lebek)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13110995
Lebek1.37
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 246 of 402
Up 2–0, closes it96% 162 of 169
Up 1–0, closes it81% 214 of 264
Nowak2.70
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 249 of 684
Down 0–1, comes back22% 88 of 408
Down 0–2, comes back8% 20 of 239
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLebek6wins
AwayNowak4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLebek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLebek71.4%5 of 7
AwayNowak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lebek7Nowak3n = 10Lebek took 7 of 10
S2Lebek5Nowak5n = 10split evenly
S3Lebek7Nowak3n = 10Lebek took 7 of 10
S4Lebek4Nowak3n = 7Lebek took 4 of 7
S5Lebek1Nowak2n = 3Nowak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLebekNowakL − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.635.1+5.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLebekNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime849 / 1464 vs 671 / 173758%38.6%849 / 1464 vs 671 / 1737Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LebekLebek 1.37/Nowak 2.70
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.5%
Lebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nowak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 06:25M. Lebek—111181082J. Nowak—691112113
WSep 11 · 02:45M. Lebek—1111133J. Nowak—86110
WSep 2 · 06:00M. Lebek—11714123J. Nowak—81112101
WSep 2 · 24:45M. Lebek—14111111113J. Nowak—16139672
WAug 26 · 08:20M. Lebek—1111113J. Nowak—1850
LAug 12 · 07:35M. Lebek—810111192J. Nowak—111258113
WAug 12 · 01:35M. Lebek—11711113J. Nowak—611561
WJul 29 · 05:10M. Lebek—1111113J. Nowak—7250
LJul 24 · 24:45M. Lebek—1161031J. Nowak—81112113
LJul 16 · 21:10M. Lebek—5111191J. Nowak—11513113
M. Lebek10
WSep 11 · 07:10Y. Fomin2.20471161M. Lebek1.5711115113LSep 11 · 04:50M. Lebek1.16911771R. Komandzik4.3511311113WSep 11 · 04:00M. Adamus2.35781181M. Lebek1.5011118113WSep 11 · 02:45M. Lebek1.421111133J. Nowak2.6086110LSep 11 · 01:10M. Lebek1.7410670P. Brozek1.911211113LSep 11 · 24:00M. Lebek1.90116371K. Durak1.8071111113LSep 10 · 22:25M. Lebek1.9013101131M. Tkocz1.76111213113WSep 10 · 21:10M. Lebek—1111113R. Komandzik—5380LSep 10 · 08:45M. Lebek1.358950A. Burkacki2.801111113LSep 10 · 07:10M. Lebek1.356111011102P. Slosarczyk2.75119127123
J. Nowak10
LSep 11 · 07:35J. Nowak1.70136661R. Komandzik2.00111111113LSep 11 · 05:10M. Adamus1.6111118113J. Nowak2.08881181WSep 11 · 03:35R. Idaczyk1.80912731J. Nowak1.85111011113LSep 11 · 02:45M. Lebek1.421111133J. Nowak2.6086110WSep 11 · 01:35J. Nowak1.447131311113R. Komandzik2.50111115992LSep 11 · 24:25P. Brozek1.57871112113J. Nowak2.20111181072LSep 10 · 23:10K. Durak1.6011711123J. Nowak2.207114101LSep 10 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.341112113J. Nowak2.8581090LSep 9 · 02:35L. Oracz1.671111123J. Nowak2.1058100LSep 9 · 01:25J. Nowak2.201341011142P. Adamus1.611111129163
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