TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13108468
Played Sep 11Finished
Mariusz Adamus
Home
2.35
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711811118811––
Marian Lebek
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:08 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeMarian Lebek to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
711811118811––
H2H Mariusz Adamus 33–39 Marian Lebek Mariusz Adamus has won 33 of their 72 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:08What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (61%)
Lebek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-39 in 72
Lebek
Correct
gap of 6 in 72, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1342 vs Lebek 1395
Lebek
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 40% vs Lebek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 50% vs Lebek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +1 · Lebek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Lebek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lebek form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 2.35 / Lebek 1.50
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Lebek)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13108468
Adamus2.35
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 181 of 432
Down 0–1, comes back23% 52 of 224
Down 0–2, comes back10% 12 of 118
Lebek1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 246 of 402
Up 2–0, closes it96% 162 of 169
Up 1–0, closes it81% 214 of 264
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus3wins
AwayLebek7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLebek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus100%3 of 3
AwayLebek100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus3Lebek7n = 10Lebek took 7 of 10
S2Adamus3Lebek7n = 10Lebek took 7 of 10
S3Adamus4Lebek6n = 10Lebek took 6 of 10
S4Adamus4Lebek4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusLebekA − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.038.4−3.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusLebekBasisWin rate · lifetime789 / 1626 vs 848 / 146148.5%58%789 / 1626 vs 848 / 1461Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LebekAdamus 2.35/Lebek 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.4%
Lebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 06:00M. Adamus—81090M. Lebek—1112113
WSep 8 · 22:00M. Adamus—116711113M. Lebek—91111662
LAug 28 · 08:00M. Adamus—511991M. Lebek—11611113
LAug 21 · 02:20M. Adamus—481171M. Lebek—11117113
WAug 13 · 08:20M. Adamus—11611113M. Lebek—511671
LAug 13 · 02:20M. Adamus—81261152M. Lebek—1110113113
LAug 12 · 04:50M. Adamus—681281M. Lebek—111110113
LJul 31 · 07:10M. Adamus—89100M. Lebek—1111123
WJul 30 · 08:50M. Adamus—11811113M. Lebek—611891
LJul 8 · 03:35M. Adamus—3111151M. Lebek—11713113
M. Adamus10
WSep 11 · 05:10M. Adamus1.6111118113J. Nowak2.08881181WSep 9 · 08:20M. Adamus1.8811119113M. Paszkiewicz1.82971181LSep 9 · 06:45J. Kaczmarek2.10511711113M. Adamus1.6711811692LSep 9 · 06:00M. Lebek1.701112113M. Adamus1.9581090WSep 9 · 05:10M. Adamus1.8311611123O. Sokolowski1.866114101LSep 9 · 04:00M. Adamus1.57971191M. Sikon2.1611116113WSep 9 · 02:20M. Adamus1.851111113M. Paszkiewicz1.854940WSep 9 · 24:45M. Tkocz1.41118871M. Adamus2.5581111113LSep 9 · 24:00M. Sikon2.20111211113M. Adamus1.58714891LSep 8 · 23:10M. Adamus1.8088111152O. Sokolowski1.86111155113
M. Lebek10
LSep 11 · 04:50M. Lebek1.16911771R. Komandzik4.3511311113WSep 11 · 02:45M. Lebek1.421111133J. Nowak2.6086110LSep 11 · 01:10M. Lebek1.7410670P. Brozek1.911211113LSep 11 · 24:00M. Lebek1.90116371K. Durak1.8071111113LSep 10 · 22:25M. Lebek1.9013101131M. Tkocz1.76111213113WSep 10 · 21:10M. Lebek—1111113R. Komandzik—5380LSep 10 · 08:45M. Lebek1.358950A. Burkacki2.801111113LSep 10 · 07:10M. Lebek1.356111011102P. Slosarczyk2.75119127123WSep 10 · 06:10M. Lebek1.71111177113P. Adamus2.0048111192WSep 9 · 06:00M. Lebek1.701112113M. Adamus1.9581090
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.