TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110772
Played Sep 11Finished
Mariusz Adamus
Home
1.61
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118118811118––
Jakub Nowak
Away
2.08
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMariusz Adamus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
118118811118––
H2H Mariusz Adamus 34–38 Jakub Nowak Mariusz Adamus has won 34 of their 72 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:43What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (56%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-38 in 72
Nowak
Wrong
gap of 4 in 72, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1332 vs Nowak 1298
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 40% vs Nowak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 40% vs Nowak 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus -1 · Nowak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.61 / Nowak 2.08
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Adamus)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13110772
Adamus1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 226 of 415
Up 2–0, closes it89% 84 of 94
Up 1–0, closes it72% 153 of 212
Nowak2.08
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 249 of 684
Down 0–1, comes back22% 88 of 408
Down 0–2, comes back8% 20 of 239
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus2wins
AwayNowak8wins
8 of 10 to a deciderNowak leads 8–2, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus25%1 of 4
AwayNowak83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus4Nowak6n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S2Adamus4Nowak6n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S3Adamus5Nowak5n = 10split evenly
S4Adamus5Nowak5n = 10split evenly
S5Adamus2Nowak6n = 8Nowak took 6 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusNowakA − NBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match44.147.4−3.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime789 / 1627 vs 670 / 173548.5%38.6%789 / 1627 vs 670 / 1735Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.61/Nowak 2.08
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.8%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 22:20M. Adamus—31111972J. Nowak—119811113
LAug 29 · 05:05M. Adamus—118671J. Nowak—81111113
LAug 28 · 20:45M. Adamus—119118122J. Nowak—811211143
LAug 12 · 06:25M. Adamus—99111152J. Nowak—111159113
LAug 4 · 03:35M. Adamus—99111152J. Nowak—111165113
LJun 21 · 03:35M. Adamus—11912842J. Nowak—7111011113
LJun 4 · 05:10M. Adamus—815871J. Nowak—111311113
WJun 3 · 24:00M. Adamus—117812123J. Nowak—6111110102
LMay 20 · 06:45M. Adamus—1011111142J. Nowak—129136113
WMay 19 · 07:10M. Adamus—511713123J. Nowak—1181111102
M. Adamus10
LSep 11 · 04:00M. Adamus2.35781181M. Lebek1.5011118113WSep 9 · 08:20M. Adamus1.8811119113M. Paszkiewicz1.82971181LSep 9 · 06:45J. Kaczmarek2.10511711113M. Adamus1.6711811692LSep 9 · 06:00M. Lebek1.701112113M. Adamus1.9581090WSep 9 · 05:10M. Adamus1.8311611123O. Sokolowski1.866114101LSep 9 · 04:00M. Adamus1.57971191M. Sikon2.1611116113WSep 9 · 02:20M. Adamus1.851111113M. Paszkiewicz1.854940WSep 9 · 24:45M. Tkocz1.41118871M. Adamus2.5581111113LSep 9 · 24:00M. Sikon2.20111211113M. Adamus1.58714891LSep 8 · 23:10M. Adamus1.8088111152O. Sokolowski1.86111155113
J. Nowak10
WSep 11 · 03:35R. Idaczyk1.80912731J. Nowak1.85111011113LSep 11 · 02:45M. Lebek1.421111133J. Nowak2.6086110WSep 11 · 01:35J. Nowak1.447131311113R. Komandzik2.50111115992LSep 11 · 24:25P. Brozek1.57871112113J. Nowak2.20111181072LSep 10 · 23:10K. Durak1.6011711123J. Nowak2.207114101LSep 10 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.341112113J. Nowak2.8581090LSep 9 · 02:35L. Oracz1.671111123J. Nowak2.1058100LSep 9 · 01:25J. Nowak2.201341011142P. Adamus1.611111129163LSep 9 · 24:10G. Marud1.911111113J. Nowak1.804880WSep 8 · 22:55G. Jurowicz1.801111119102J. Nowak1.91613811123
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