TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13102993
Played Sep 10Finished
Marek Tkocz
Home
1.34
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181210119––––
Jakub Nowak
Away
2.85
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:27 and never touched — 63.8% is still 63.8%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
63.8%
63.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
61 points played in total.
Set by set
1181210119––––
H2H Marek Tkocz 44–10 Jakub Nowak Jakub Nowak has won 10 of their 54 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:27What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.34 (68%)
Tkocz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
44-10 in 54
Tkocz
Correct
gap of 34 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkocz 1361 vs Nowak 1296
Tkocz
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkocz 0% vs Nowak 40%
Nowak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkocz 20% vs Nowak 40%
Nowak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkocz -5 · Nowak -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Tkocz) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkocz form (0%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkocz 1.34 / Nowak 2.85
Signal prob.72% / 29%
Edge (Tkocz)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13102993
Tkocz1.34
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 314 of 468
Up 2–0, closes it95% 175 of 185
Up 1–0, closes it84% 257 of 307
Nowak2.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 248 of 686
Down 0–1, comes back21% 88 of 412
Down 0–2, comes back8% 20 of 241
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkocz7wins
AwayNowak3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTkocz leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkocz77.8%7 of 9
AwayNowakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkocz9Nowak1n = 10Tkocz took 9 of 10
S2Tkocz7Nowak3n = 10Tkocz took 7 of 10
S3Tkocz4Nowak6n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S4Tkocz3Nowak4n = 7Nowak took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkoczNowakT − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match36.331.3+5.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkoczNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime763 / 1148 vs 670 / 173966.5%38.5%763 / 1148 vs 670 / 1739Avg sets wonper match2.41.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczTkocz 1.34/Nowak 2.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.5%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tkocz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 02:00M. Tkocz—911791J. Nowak—11611113
WAug 12 · 02:45M. Tkocz—1111113J. Nowak—7560
LJul 29 · 07:35M. Tkocz—113951J. Nowak—81111113
WJul 23 · 23:10M. Tkocz—1511113J. Nowak—13770
WJun 19 · 24:00M. Tkocz—1111113J. Nowak—4230
LJun 12 · 02:20M. Tkocz—117991J. Nowak—51111113
WJun 11 · 20:20M. Tkocz—111146113J. Nowak—98111152
WJun 10 · 02:20M. Tkocz—11119113J. Nowak—571171
WJun 3 · 02:45M. Tkocz—11115113J. Nowak—691191
WMay 20 · 05:10M. Tkocz—11411113J. Nowak—911841
M. Tkocz10
LSep 10 · 20:20K. Durak1.8011116123M. Tkocz1.907611101LSep 10 · 19:35P. Zemla1.831211113M. Tkocz1.8310830LSep 10 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.8811811113M. Tkocz1.82911661LSep 10 · 16:50P. Gasiorski1.3611117113M. Tkocz2.75371141LSep 10 · 15:10P. Brozek2.10741311113M. Tkocz1.66111111472WSep 9 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.72711115113M. Lebek1.9211851172LSep 9 · 24:45M. Tkocz1.41118871M. Adamus2.5581111113WSep 8 · 23:35M. Tkocz1.3711511113M. Paszkiewicz2.70911931LSep 8 · 22:25M. Sikon3.35841111113M. Tkocz1.2511119692LSep 8 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.451481111102O. Sokolowski2.55161159123
J. Nowak10
LSep 9 · 02:35L. Oracz1.671111123J. Nowak2.1058100LSep 9 · 01:25J. Nowak2.201341011142P. Adamus1.611111129163LSep 9 · 24:10G. Marud1.911111113J. Nowak1.804880WSep 8 · 22:55G. Jurowicz1.801111119102J. Nowak1.91613811123WSep 8 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.36931113112J. Nowak3.001111411133LSep 8 · 20:30G. Marud1.671111113J. Nowak2.108950LSep 8 · 19:20J. Nowak2.20981191P. Adamus1.6111119113LSep 8 · 18:10L. Oracz1.57811118113J. Nowak2.2511851162WSep 8 · 16:55G. Jurowicz2.0011611772J. Nowak1.73811811113WSep 8 · 15:25M. Koczyba1.36881631J. Nowak3.00111114113
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