TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13108192
Played Sep 10Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.88
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119811116116––
Marek Tkocz
Away
1.82
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:03 and never touched — 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
119811116116––
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 45–26 Marek Tkocz Marek Tkocz has won 26 of their 71 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:03What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.82 (51%)
Tkocz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-26 in 71
Koczyba
Correct
gap of 19 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1333 vs Tkocz 1394
Tkocz
Wrong
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 80% vs Tkocz 40%
Koczyba
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 50% vs Tkocz 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba +2 · Tkocz -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tkocz) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkocz form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.88 / Tkocz 1.82
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Tkocz)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13108192
Koczyba1.88
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 25 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 24
Tkocz1.82
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 314 of 468
Up 2–0, closes it95% 175 of 185
Up 1–0, closes it84% 257 of 307
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba5wins
AwayTkocz5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba100%5 of 5
AwayTkocz100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba5Tkocz5n = 10split evenly
S2Koczyba4Tkocz6n = 10Tkocz took 6 of 10
S3Koczyba7Tkocz3n = 10Koczyba took 7 of 10
S4Koczyba4Tkocz4n = 8split evenly
S5Koczyba1Tkocz2n = 3Tkocz took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaTkoczK − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.736.7−1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaTkoczBasisWin rate · lifetime860 / 1316 vs 763 / 114565.4%66.6%860 / 1316 vs 763 / 1145Avg sets wonper match2.32.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczKoczyba 1.88/Tkocz 1.82
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Koczyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 30 · 16:00M. Koczyba—311571M. Tkocz—11511113
LJun 25 · 17:35M. Koczyba—7970M. Tkocz—1111113
WJun 23 · 16:50M. Koczyba—12511113M. Tkocz—1011231
LJun 18 · 18:45M. Koczyba—3211101M. Tkocz—11117123
LJun 16 · 15:35M. Koczyba—41151182M. Tkocz—119119113
WJun 11 · 18:45M. Koczyba—1110116113M. Tkocz—81271172
WJun 9 · 18:45M. Koczyba—111211113M. Tkocz—514731
WJun 2 · 21:35M. Koczyba—11511113M. Tkocz—611971
LJun 2 · 15:35M. Koczyba—61111562M. Tkocz—119911113
WMay 28 · 22:25M. Koczyba—1111113M. Tkocz—7760
M. Koczyba10
WSep 10 · 16:25P. Brozek1.90116491M. Koczyba1.8081111113WSep 10 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.861111133P. Zemla1.7863110LSep 9 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.70851191S. Krupa2.0011117113WSep 9 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.5581114113W. Jozala2.251131271WSep 9 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.55471114113M. Baron2.30111151262LSep 9 · 16:25W. Pytlas2.10761211113M. Koczyba1.60111110892WSep 9 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.331111113A. Ruszkiewicz3.107980LSep 9 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.57143151G. Marud2.25121111113LSep 9 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.7351111952G. Jurowicz2.00117311113LSep 8 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.80511661P. Adamus1.9111811113
M. Tkocz10
LSep 10 · 16:50P. Gasiorski1.3611117113M. Tkocz2.75371141LSep 10 · 15:10P. Brozek2.10741311113M. Tkocz1.66111111472WSep 9 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.72711115113M. Lebek1.9211851172LSep 9 · 24:45M. Tkocz1.41118871M. Adamus2.5581111113WSep 8 · 23:35M. Tkocz1.3711511113M. Paszkiewicz2.70911931LSep 8 · 22:25M. Sikon3.35841111113M. Tkocz1.2511119692LSep 8 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.451481111102O. Sokolowski2.55161159123LSep 8 · 20:00M. Tkocz1.3811712552S. Juzek2.808111011113WSep 8 · 18:45M. Tkocz1.471111113R. Gajda2.508870WSep 8 · 17:35M. Tkocz1.901011116113K. Juszczyk1.7512381132
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