TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110121
Played Sep 11Finished
Rafal Idaczyk
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111210711311––
Jakub Nowak
Away
1.85
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Idaczyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
9111210711311––
H2H Rafal Idaczyk 26–16 Jakub Nowak Jakub Nowak has won 16 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:27What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Idaczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-16 in 42
Idaczyk
Wrong
gap of 10 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Idaczyk 1409 vs Nowak 1264
Idaczyk
Wrong
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Idaczyk 20% vs Nowak 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Idaczyk 60% vs Nowak 30%
Idaczyk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Idaczyk -4 · Nowak -1
Idaczyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Idaczyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (20%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIdaczyk 1.80 / Nowak 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Idaczyk)+3.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13110121
Idaczyk1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 115 of 182
Up 2–0, closes it96% 72 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it80% 93 of 116
Nowak1.85
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 248 of 686
Down 0–1, comes back21% 88 of 412
Down 0–2, comes back8% 20 of 241
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIdaczyk7wins
AwayNowak3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderIdaczyk leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIdaczyk83.3%5 of 6
AwayNowak50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Idaczyk6Nowak4n = 10Idaczyk took 6 of 10
S2Idaczyk4Nowak6n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S3Idaczyk6Nowak4n = 10Idaczyk took 6 of 10
S4Idaczyk5Nowak1n = 6Idaczyk took 5 of 6
S5Idaczyk2Nowak1n = 3Idaczyk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricIdaczykNowakI − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.436.1+2.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIdaczykNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime480 / 973 vs 669 / 173449.3%38.6%480 / 973 vs 669 / 1734Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.737.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IdaczykIdaczyk 1.80/Nowak 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Idaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nowak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 5 · 16:00R. Idaczyk—11711113J. Nowak—611881
WJul 21 · 03:50R. Idaczyk—911911123J. Nowak—118119102
WJul 16 · 16:00R. Idaczyk—1111113J. Nowak—9680
WJul 15 · 06:45R. Idaczyk—8111110113J. Nowak—11881252
LJun 17 · 06:45R. Idaczyk—101070J. Nowak—1212113
WJun 7 · 04:50R. Idaczyk—11911123J. Nowak—9118101
LJun 3 · 04:00R. Idaczyk—13961292J. Nowak—11111110113
WMay 26 · 06:25R. Idaczyk—11411113J. Nowak—811771
LMay 19 · 04:25R. Idaczyk—8740J. Nowak—1111113
WMay 17 · 03:35R. Idaczyk—1111113J. Nowak—4780
R. Idaczyk10
LSep 11 · 04:25Y. Fomin1.801311113R. Idaczyk1.8611850LSep 10 · 13:55R. Idaczyk2.10115921P. Kurek1.6761111113LSep 10 · 12:40R. Idaczyk2.1086100M. Sikon1.671111123LSep 10 · 11:25R. Idaczyk2.6312850K. Slawinski1.441411113LSep 10 · 10:10L. Oracz1.53111176153R. Idaczyk2.38821111132WSep 10 · 09:25R. Idaczyk1.831111113W. Urban1.834970WSep 10 · 07:45R. Idaczyk2.6311101011113L. Oracz1.4491212752WSep 10 · 06:30R. Idaczyk2.001111312113M. Sikon1.73138111082WSep 10 · 05:30R. Idaczyk2.75611116133K. Slawinski1.40117911112WSep 10 · 04:00P. Kurek1.537860R. Idaczyk2.381111113
J. Nowak10
LSep 11 · 02:45M. Lebek1.421111133J. Nowak2.6086110WSep 11 · 01:35J. Nowak1.447131311113R. Komandzik2.50111115992LSep 11 · 24:25P. Brozek1.57871112113J. Nowak2.20111181072LSep 10 · 23:10K. Durak1.6011711123J. Nowak2.207114101LSep 10 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.341112113J. Nowak2.8581090LSep 9 · 02:35L. Oracz1.671111123J. Nowak2.1058100LSep 9 · 01:25J. Nowak2.201341011142P. Adamus1.611111129163LSep 9 · 24:10G. Marud1.911111113J. Nowak1.804880WSep 8 · 22:55G. Jurowicz1.801111119102J. Nowak1.91613811123WSep 8 · 21:20M. Koczyba1.36931113112J. Nowak3.001111411133
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