TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13109471
Played Sep 10Finished
Marian Lebek
Home
1.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
131110121113311––
Marek Tkocz
Away
1.76
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:36 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeMarian Lebek to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
84 points played in total.
Set by set
131110121113311––
H2H Marian Lebek 58–48 Marek Tkocz Marek Tkocz has won 48 of their 106 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:36What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.76 (52%)
Tkocz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
58-48 in 106
Lebek
Wrong
gap of 10 in 106, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lebek 1434 vs Tkocz 1372
Lebek
Wrong
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lebek 60% vs Tkocz 20%
Lebek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lebek 70% vs Tkocz 30%
Lebek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lebek +1 · Tkocz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tkocz) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkocz form (20%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLebek 1.90 / Tkocz 1.76
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Tkocz)+2.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13109471
Lebek1.90
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog52% won 106 of 204
Down 0–1, comes back28% 26 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 46
Tkocz1.76
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 314 of 468
Up 2–0, closes it95% 175 of 185
Up 1–0, closes it84% 257 of 307
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLebek6wins
AwayTkocz4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLebek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLebek71.4%5 of 7
AwayTkocz66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lebek7Tkocz3n = 10Lebek took 7 of 10
S2Lebek5Tkocz5n = 10split evenly
S3Lebek4Tkocz6n = 10Tkocz took 6 of 10
S4Lebek4Tkocz2n = 6Lebek took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLebekTkoczL − TBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.635.3−0.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLebekTkoczBasisWin rate · lifetime850 / 1460 vs 764 / 114958.2%66.5%850 / 1460 vs 764 / 1149Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczLebek 1.90/Tkocz 1.76
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tkocz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 02:00M. Lebek—11851172M. Tkocz—711115113
WSep 4 · 02:20M. Lebek—1111113M. Tkocz—7960
LSep 1 · 22:00M. Lebek—114571M. Tkocz—91111113
WAug 27 · 21:35M. Lebek—1111153M. Tkocz—78130
LAug 25 · 23:10M. Lebek—8770M. Tkocz—1111113
WAug 20 · 23:35M. Lebek—131148113M. Tkocz—119111152
LAug 19 · 24:25M. Lebek—4880M. Tkocz—1111113
WAug 14 · 24:00M. Lebek—11116113M. Tkocz—781191
WAug 11 · 21:10M. Lebek—11411133M. Tkocz—8117111
WAug 6 · 22:25M. Lebek—71111113M. Tkocz—117671
M. Lebek10
WSep 10 · 21:10M. Lebek—1111113R. Komandzik—5380LSep 10 · 08:45M. Lebek1.358950A. Burkacki2.801111113LSep 10 · 07:10M. Lebek1.356111011102P. Slosarczyk2.75119127123WSep 10 · 06:10M. Lebek1.71111177113P. Adamus2.0048111192WSep 10 · 04:20M. Lebek1.311114113J. Kaczmarek3.0091240WSep 10 · 03:10M. Lebek1.521111113O. Sokolowski2.303990WSep 10 · 02:00M. Baron2.208950M. Lebek1.571111113WSep 10 · 01:10P. Slosarczyk2.903680M. Lebek1.331111113WSep 10 · 24:25M. Lebek1.35111148113A. Burkacki2.8057111172LSep 9 · 22:50M. Lebek1.529590O. Sokolowski2.301111113
M. Tkocz10
WSep 10 · 23:35M. Tkocz1.2011911113R. Komandzik3.90711311WSep 10 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.341112113J. Nowak2.8581090LSep 10 · 20:20K. Durak1.8011116123M. Tkocz1.907611101LSep 10 · 19:35P. Zemla1.831211113M. Tkocz1.8310830LSep 10 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.8811811113M. Tkocz1.82911661LSep 10 · 16:50P. Gasiorski1.3611117113M. Tkocz2.75371141LSep 10 · 15:10P. Brozek2.10741311113M. Tkocz1.66111111472WSep 9 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.72711115113M. Lebek1.9211851172LSep 9 · 24:45M. Tkocz1.41118871M. Adamus2.5581111113WSep 8 · 23:35M. Tkocz1.3711511113M. Paszkiewicz2.70911931
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