TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13105183
Played Sep 10Finished
Marian Lebek
Home
1.52
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113119119––––
Oliwier Sokolowski
Away
2.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:34 and never touched — 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeMarian Lebek to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
54 points played in total.
Set by set
113119119––––
H2H Marian Lebek 7–8 Oliwier Sokolowski Marian Lebek has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
They have already met 2 times today · last one 4h before this match
Sokolowski beat Lebek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:34What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.52 (60%)
Lebek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lebek 1437 vs Sokolowski 1405
Lebek
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lebek 60% vs Sokolowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lebek 70% vs Sokolowski 50%
Lebek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lebek +3 · Sokolowski -1
Lebek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Lebek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sokolowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLebek 1.52 / Sokolowski 2.30
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Lebek)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13105183
Lebek1.52
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 242 of 395
Up 2–0, closes it96% 158 of 165
Up 1–0, closes it81% 210 of 260
Sokolowski2.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 112 of 308
Down 0–1, comes back19% 36 of 187
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 113
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLebek5wins
AwaySokolowski5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLebek71.4%5 of 7
AwaySokolowski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lebek7Sokolowski3n = 10Lebek took 7 of 10
S2Lebek5Sokolowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Lebek2Sokolowski8n = 10Sokolowski took 8 of 10
S4Lebek5Sokolowski3n = 8Lebek took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLebekSokolowskiL − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.137.0+0.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLebekSokolowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime850 / 1463 vs 221 / 51758.1%42.8%850 / 1463 vs 221 / 517Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LebekLebek 1.52/Sokolowski 2.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61%
Lebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 22:50M. Lebek—9590O. Sokolowski—1111113
LSep 9 · 08:45M. Lebek—117691O. Sokolowski—71111113
WSep 9 · 24:25M. Lebek—11211113O. Sokolowski—611661
LSep 3 · 04:00M. Lebek—711781O. Sokolowski—11811113
WSep 3 · 24:00M. Lebek—111111113O. Sokolowski—661371
LAug 19 · 08:45M. Lebek—11481282O. Sokolowski—8111110113
LAug 13 · 07:35M. Lebek—5111181O. Sokolowski—11313113
WAug 13 · 01:35M. Lebek—127811113O. Sokolowski—101111572
WAug 12 · 03:10M. Lebek—1111113O. Sokolowski—6980
WJul 26 · 12:40M. Lebek—11128123O. Sokolowski—81011101
M. Lebek10
WSep 10 · 04:20M. Lebek1.311114113J. Kaczmarek3.0091240WSep 10 · 02:00M. Baron2.208950M. Lebek1.571111113WSep 10 · 01:10P. Slosarczyk2.903680M. Lebek1.331111113WSep 10 · 24:25M. Lebek1.35111148113A. Burkacki2.8057111172LSep 9 · 22:50M. Lebek1.529590O. Sokolowski2.301111113LSep 9 · 22:00P. Adamus2.051111113M. Lebek1.635680LSep 9 · 08:45M. Lebek1.45117691O. Sokolowski2.4371111113WSep 9 · 07:10M. Lebek1.7051111113M. Sikon2.00115491WSep 9 · 06:00M. Lebek1.701112113M. Adamus1.9581090WSep 9 · 04:25M. Lebek1.321111113J. Kaczmarek2.906590
O. Sokolowski10
LSep 10 · 05:50J. Kaczmarek2.1411712153O. Sokolowski1.5871110131LSep 10 · 04:40P. Slosarczyk2.06119157113O. Sokolowski1.63811131172LSep 10 · 02:20P. Adamus1.65111012113O. Sokolowski2.104121071WSep 10 · 01:35A. Burkacki1.95711971O. Sokolowski1.7511911113LSep 9 · 23:35M. Baron1.83111111123O. Sokolowski1.868913101WSep 9 · 22:50M. Lebek1.529590O. Sokolowski2.301111113WSep 9 · 21:10P. Slosarczyk2.0641090O. Sokolowski1.631112113WSep 9 · 08:45M. Lebek1.45117691O. Sokolowski2.4371111113WSep 9 · 07:35O. Sokolowski1.831111113M. Paszkiewicz1.837960LSep 9 · 06:25M. Sikon2.171111113O. Sokolowski1.567980
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