TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13112762
Played Sep 11Finished
Marian Lebek
Home
1.16
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911113711711––
Rafal Komandzik
Away
4.35
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:35 and never touched — 73.1% is still 73.1%
Graded at full timeMarian Lebek to win
73.1%
73.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
70 points played in total.
Set by set
911113711711––
H2H Marian Lebek 2–0 Rafal Komandzik Rafal Komandzik has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Lebek beat Komandzik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:35What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.16 (79%)
Lebek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Lebek 1395 vs Komandzik 899
Lebek
Wrong
both rated, 497 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lebek 40% vs Komandzik 0%
Lebek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lebek 50% vs Komandzik 0%
Lebek
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lebek +1 · Komandzik -5
Komandzik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Lebek) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Komandzik form (0%) is below what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLebek 1.16 / Komandzik 4.35
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Lebek)-0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13112762
Lebek1.16
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 246 of 402
Up 2–0, closes it96% 162 of 169
Up 1–0, closes it81% 214 of 264
Komandzik4.35
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeLebek2wins
AwayKomandzik0wins
Lebek leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricLebekKomandzikL − KBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match37.021.5+15.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLebekKomandzikBasisWin rate · lifetime848 / 1461 vs 1 / 1658%6.3%848 / 1461 vs 1 / 16Avg sets wonper match2.20.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.830.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LebekLebek 1.16/Komandzik 4.35
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
78.9%
Lebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Komandzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 10 · 21:10M. Lebek—1111113R. Komandzik—5380
WSep 2 · 22:25M. Lebek—81111113R. Komandzik—115651
M. Lebek10
WSep 11 · 04:00M. Adamus2.35781181M. Lebek1.5011118113WSep 11 · 02:45M. Lebek1.421111133J. Nowak2.6086110LSep 11 · 01:10M. Lebek1.7410670P. Brozek1.911211113LSep 11 · 24:00M. Lebek1.90116371K. Durak1.8071111113LSep 10 · 22:25M. Lebek1.9013101131M. Tkocz1.76111213113WSep 10 · 21:10M. Lebek—1111113R. Komandzik—5380LSep 10 · 08:45M. Lebek1.358950A. Burkacki2.801111113LSep 10 · 07:10M. Lebek1.356111011102P. Slosarczyk2.75119127123WSep 10 · 06:10M. Lebek1.71111177113P. Adamus2.0048111192WSep 10 · 04:20M. Lebek1.311114113J. Kaczmarek3.0091240
R. Komandzik10
LSep 11 · 05:35R. Idaczyk1.341111113R. Komandzik3.005660LSep 11 · 03:10Y. Fomin1.271111113R. Komandzik3.206850LSep 11 · 02:20K. Durak1.221311113R. Komandzik3.7011370LSep 11 · 01:35J. Nowak1.447131311113R. Komandzik2.50111115992LSep 10 · 23:35M. Tkocz1.2011911113R. Komandzik3.90711311LSep 10 · 22:50P. Brozek1.22111194123R. Komandzik3.65961111102LSep 10 · 21:10M. Lebek—1111113R. Komandzik—5380LSep 3 · 02:00R. Komandzik—71170M. Paszkiewicz—1113113LSep 3 · 24:45R. Komandzik—71111952O. Sokolowski—116311113LSep 2 · 23:35R. Komandzik—106100W. Urban—1211123
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