TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13124013
Played Sep 13Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116911118711116
Jakub Nowak
Away
2.40
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:22 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
116911118711116
H2H Grzegorz Marud 70–35 Jakub Nowak Jakub Nowak has won 35 of their 105 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:22What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (62%)
Marud
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
70-35 in 105
Marud
Correct
gap of 35 in 105, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1497 vs Nowak 1250
Marud
Correct
both rated, 248 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 80% vs Nowak 20%
Marud
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 80% vs Nowak 30%
Marud
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud -1 · Nowak -3
Nowak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Marud) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 1.50 / Nowak 2.40
Signal prob.66% / 35%
Edge (Marud)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13124013
Marud1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 120 of 222
Up 2–0, closes it86% 72 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it70% 97 of 138
Nowak2.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 231 of 650
Down 0–1, comes back21% 83 of 392
Down 0–2, comes back9% 20 of 232
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarud7wins
AwayNowak3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMarud leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud77.8%7 of 9
AwayNowakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud9Nowak1n = 10Marud took 9 of 10
S2Marud7Nowak3n = 10Marud took 7 of 10
S3Marud6Nowak4n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S4Marud3Nowak1n = 4Marud took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarudNowakM − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.131.5+6.6per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime636 / 1352 vs 671 / 173947%38.6%636 / 1352 vs 671 / 1739Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarudMarud 1.50/Nowak 2.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.5%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 20:30G. Marud331111113J. Nowak228950
LSep 8 · 03:05G. Marud31108130J. Nowak381211153
WSep 7 · 21:05G. Marud351113113J. Nowak2231180
WAug 31 · 23:30G. Marud45131011113J. Nowak361112671
LAug 31 · 19:10G. Marud46111158112J. Nowak50691111133
WAug 5 · 01:45G. Marud371115113J. Nowak3091380
WJul 28 · 24:30G. Marud4311119123J. Nowak355911101
LJul 27 · 22:20G. Marud4511591192J. Nowak48811117113
WJul 27 · 24:45G. Marud331111113J. Nowak165650
WJul 26 · 22:20G. Marud331111113J. Nowak188550
G. Marud10
LSep 13 · 18:20G. Marud1.7091111142A. Ruszkiewicz2.00117811113WSep 9 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.57143151G. Marud2.25121111113WSep 9 · 01:00L. Oracz1.83116871G. Marud1.8361111113WSep 9 · 24:10G. Marud1.911111113J. Nowak1.804880WSep 8 · 22:35G. Marud2.101112113P. Adamus1.6761060WSep 8 · 21:45G. Jurowicz2.405660G. Marud1.501111113WSep 8 · 20:30G. Marud1.671111113J. Nowak2.108950LSep 8 · 18:55G. Marud1.837520L. Oracz1.831111113WSep 8 · 17:45G. Marud1.571111113G. Jurowicz2.259470WSep 8 · 16:15G. Marud2.2511511113M. Koczyba1.57411411
J. Nowak10
LSep 13 · 17:55M. Adamus1.659101113113J. Nowak2.10111241172LSep 11 · 08:45Y. Fomin1.601111113J. Nowak2.155480LSep 11 · 07:35J. Nowak1.70136661R. Komandzik2.00111111113WSep 11 · 06:25M. Lebek1.37111181082J. Nowak2.70691112113LSep 11 · 05:10M. Adamus1.6111118113J. Nowak2.08881181WSep 11 · 03:35R. Idaczyk1.80912731J. Nowak1.85111011113LSep 11 · 02:45M. Lebek1.421111133J. Nowak2.6086110WSep 11 · 01:35J. Nowak1.447131311113R. Komandzik2.50111115992LSep 9 · 24:10G. Marud1.911111113J. Nowak1.804880LSep 8 · 20:30G. Marud1.671111113J. Nowak2.108950
Upcoming Matches
G. Marud
Sep 13 · 20:20G. Marud2.10O. Jadach1.60—Sep 13 · 21:05G. Marud1.61M. Adamus2.08—Sep 13 · 22:40G. Marud1.63O. Vincenec2.05—Sep 14 · 24:20G. Marud2.17O. Jadach1.56—Sep 14 · 01:30G. Marud1.47J. Nowak2.37—Sep 14 · 02:20G. Marud1.45A. Ruszkiewicz2.45—Sep 14 · 03:05G. Marud1.61M. Adamus2.08—Sep 14 · 04:40G. Marud—O. Vincenec——
J. Nowak1 of 8 neutral
Sep 13 · 20:45J. Nowak1.83A. Ruszkiewicz1.86—Sep 13 · 21:55J. Nowak2.10O. Vincenec1.60—Sep 13 · 23:05J. Nowak2.85O. Jadach1.33—Sep 13 · 23:55J. Nowak2.08M. Adamus1.62—Sep 14 · 01:30J. Nowak2.37G. Marud1.47—Sep 14 · 02:45J. Nowak2.85O. Jadach1.33—Sep 14 · 03:55J. Nowak—O. Vincenec——Sep 14 · 05:05J. Nowak—A. Ruszkiewicz——
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